Application of BCTC standardized risk estimation model to assess risk due to ice storms

This paper illustrates the applied methodology used by British Columbia Transmission Corporation (BCTC) to estimate and compare risk to transmission system assets due to infrequent events. It outlines the standardized risk estimation model, that is the basis for estimating the risk, and its application to estimate the risk due to ice storms on two areas of the BCTC transmission system. The paper describes the failure modes, data requirements, intermediate fault tree modeling, overall risk estimation, and reinforcement scenarios considered when determining a reinforcement strategy. The results of the ice storm study present the cost of the reinforcement scenarios, the associated risk in present value S, and the benefit/cost efficiency for all the reinforcement scenarios.