Effects of 2000–2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States

[1] We investigate the effects on U.S. ozone air quality from 2000–2050 global changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors by using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (NASA/GISS GCM). We follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario and separate the effects from changes in climate and anthropogenic emissions through sensitivity simulations. The 2000–2050 changes in anthropogenic emissions reduce the U.S. summer daily maximum 8-hour ozone by 2–15 ppb, but climate change causes a 2–5 ppb positive offset over the Midwest and northeastern United States, partly driven by decreased ventilation from convection and frontal passages. Ozone pollution episodes are far more affected by climate change than mean values, with effects exceeding 10 ppb in the Midwest and northeast. We find that ozone air quality in the southeast is insensitive to climate change, reflecting compensating effects from changes in isoprene emission and air pollution meteorology. We define a ‘‘climate change penalty’’ as the additional emission controls necessary to meet a given ozone air quality target. We find that a 50% reduction in U.S. NOx emissions is needed in the 2050 climate to reach the same target in the Midwest as a 40% reduction in the 2000 climate. Emission controls reduce the magnitude of this climate change penalty and can even turn it into a climate benefit in some regions.

[1]  Renate Forkel,et al.  Regional climate change and its impact on photooxidant concentrations in southern Germany: Simulations with a coupled regional climate‐chemistry model , 2006 .

[2]  D. Jacob,et al.  Impact of new laboratory studies of N2O5 hydrolysis on global model budgets of tropospheric nitrogen oxides, ozone, and OH , 2005, Geophysical Research Letters.

[3]  P. Samson,et al.  Impact of temperature on oxidant photochemistry in urban, polluted rural and remote environments , 1995 .

[4]  Alan Fried,et al.  Surface and Lightning Sources of Nitrogen Oxides over the United States: Magnitudes, Chemical Evolution, and Outflow , 2007 .

[5]  Anthony D. Del Genio,et al.  Will moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate? , 2007 .

[6]  Colin Price,et al.  Vertical distributions of lightning NOx for use in regional and global chemical transport models , 1998 .

[7]  R. Martin,et al.  North American Pollution Outflow and the Trapping of Convectively Lifted Pollution by Upper-Level Anticyclone , 2005 .

[8]  Inez Y. Fung,et al.  Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three‐dimensional model , 1988 .

[9]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Observational constraints on the chemistry of isoprene nitrates over the eastern United States , 2007 .

[10]  Sanford Sillman,et al.  The sensitivity of ozone to nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons in regional ozone episodes , 1990 .

[11]  R. Monson,et al.  Modelling changes in VOC emission in response to climate change in the continental United States , 1999 .

[12]  J. Lerner,et al.  Effects of resolution and model physics on tracer transports in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation models , 2007 .

[13]  B. Hannegan,et al.  Stratospheric ozone in 3-D models : A simple chemistry and the cross-tropopause flux , 2000 .

[14]  L. Leung,et al.  Potential regional climate change and implications to U.S. air quality , 2005 .

[15]  Xiong Liu,et al.  Remote sensed and in situ constraints on processes affecting tropical tropospheric ozone , 2006 .

[16]  C. Rosenzweig,et al.  Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions , 2004 .

[17]  Tami C. Bond,et al.  On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions , 2004 .

[18]  J. Logan,et al.  Effect of rising Asian emissions on surface ozone in the United States , 1999 .

[19]  D. Rind.  The Dynamics of Warm and Cold Climates , 1986 .

[20]  Bryan N. Duncan,et al.  Transatlantic transport of pollution and its effects on surface ozone in Europe and North America , 2002 .

[21]  David G. Streets,et al.  Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures , 2006 .

[22]  P. Bergamaschi,et al.  European Geosciences Union Atmospheric Chemistry , 2004 .

[23]  R. Martin,et al.  Application of empirical orthogonal functions to evaluate ozone simulations with regional and global models , 2003 .

[24]  C. Jones,et al.  Effect of Climate Change on Isoprene Emissions and Surface Ozone Levels , 2003 .

[25]  Joseph E. Sickles,et al.  Changes in air quality and atmospheric deposition in the eastern United States: 1990-2004 , 2007 .

[26]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[27]  D. Jacob,et al.  Export of NOy from the North American boundary layer: Reconciling aircraft observations and global model budgets , 2004 .

[28]  C. N. Hewitt,et al.  A global model of natural volatile organic compound emissions , 1995 .

[29]  Martyn P. Clark,et al.  Trends in Northern Hemisphere Surface Cyclone Frequency and Intensity , 2001 .

[30]  E. Dlugokencky,et al.  Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases , 2001 .

[31]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective , 2007 .

[32]  S. Liu,et al.  On the nonlinearity of the tropospheric ozone production , 1988 .

[33]  P. Shepson,et al.  Comparison of the measured and simulated isoprene nitrate distributions above a forest canopy , 2005 .

[34]  Paul Ginoux,et al.  Interpretation of TOMS observations of tropical tropospheric ozone with a global model and in-situ observations , 2002 .

[35]  John P. Dawson,et al.  Sensitivity of ozone to summertime climate in the eastern USA: A modeling case study , 2007 .

[36]  Katharine Hayhoe,et al.  Sensitivity of future ozone concentrations in the northeast USA to regional climate change , 2008 .

[37]  D. Rind,et al.  A simple lightning parameterization for calculating global lightning distributions , 1992 .

[38]  R. Mathur,et al.  Nonmethane hydrocarbons and ozone in three rural southeast United States national parks: A model sensitivity analysis and comparison to measurements , 2003 .

[39]  P. Hess,et al.  How does climate change contribute to surface ozone change over the United States , 2006 .

[40]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis , 2001 .

[41]  David G. Streets,et al.  Linking ozone pollution and climate change: The case for controlling methane , 2002 .

[42]  L. Horowitz,et al.  Evaluating the contribution of changes in isoprene emissions to surface ozone trends over the eastern United States , 2005 .

[43]  R. K. Dixon,et al.  Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change , 1998 .

[44]  D. Jacob,et al.  Trends in Exceedances of the Ozone Air Quality Standard in the Continental United States, 1980-1998 , 2001 .

[45]  D. Rind,et al.  Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States , 2004 .

[46]  Daniel J. Jacob,et al.  North American influence on tropospheric ozone and the effects of recent emission reductions: Constraints from ICARTT observations , 2009 .

[47]  Global simulation of tropospheric O3-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry: 1. Model formulation , 1998 .

[48]  A. Raschi,et al.  Profiles of isoprene emission and photosynthetic parameters in hybrid poplars exposed to free‐air CO2 enrichment† , 2004 .

[49]  D. Jacob,et al.  Ozone production in transpacific Asian pollution plumes and implications for ozone air quality in California , 2004, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

[50]  R. Martin,et al.  Stratospheric versus pollution influences on ozone at Bermuda: Reconciling past analyses , 2002 .

[51]  D. Jacob,et al.  Why are there large differences between models in global budgets of tropospheric ozone , 2007 .

[52]  M. Noguer,et al.  Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2002 .

[53]  D. Jacob,et al.  Background ozone over the United States in summer: Origin, trend, and contribution to pollution episodes , 2002 .

[54]  坂本 文人,et al.  Argonne National Laboratory 滞在記 , 2005 .

[55]  Peter J. Adams,et al.  Sensitivity of global tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations to climate change , 2006 .

[56]  R. Monson,et al.  Increased CO2 uncouples growth from isoprene emission in an agriforest ecosystem , 2003, Nature.

[57]  Paul J. Crutzen,et al.  Impact of Non-Methane Hydrocarbons on Tropospheric Chemistry and the Oxidizing Power of the Global Troposphere: 3-Dimensional Modelling Results , 2000 .

[58]  Larry W. Thomason,et al.  Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations , 2002 .

[59]  J. Fyfe,et al.  Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise , 2006 .

[60]  D. Stevenson,et al.  Relative roles of climate and emissions changes on future tropospheric oxidant concentrations , 1999 .

[61]  Vincent R. Gray.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers , 2007 .

[62]  Daniel J. Jacob,et al.  Factors regulating ozone over the United States and its export to the global atmosphere , 1993 .

[63]  M. Chin,et al.  Natural and transboundary pollution influences on sulfate‐nitrate‐ammonium aerosols in the United States: Implications for policy , 2004 .

[64]  Ruth Doherty,et al.  Impacts of climate change and variability on tropospheric ozone and its precursors. , 2005, Faraday discussions.

[65]  J. Lamarque,et al.  Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone , 2006 .

[66]  D. Lüthi,et al.  The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves , 2004, Nature.

[67]  A. Fiore,et al.  Increasing background ozone in surface air over the United States , 2000 .

[68]  Arlene M. Fiore,et al.  Variability in surface ozone background over the United States: Implications for air quality policy , 2003 .

[69]  J. Lerner,et al.  Changes of tracer distributions in the doubled CO2 climate , 2001 .

[70]  Xin‐Zhong Liang,et al.  Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes , 2007 .

[71]  Simulated Changes in Atmospheric Transport Climate , 2001 .

[72]  D. Jacob,et al.  Global modeling of tropospheric chemistry with assimilated meteorology : Model description and evaluation , 2001 .

[73]  Jung-Hun Woo,et al.  Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States , 2007 .

[74]  Alexei G. Sankovski,et al.  Special report on emissions scenarios , 2000 .