Stochastic Modelling of the North Sea Herring Fishery Under Alternative Management Regimes

Until 1977 the North Sea herring fishery was open access. To save the herring stock from total depletion, the fishery was closed from 1977 until 1981. Various regulations have been in effect ever since. In this study, a discrete-time stochastic bioeconomic model is developed to analyse the North Sea herring fishery under alternative management regimes. It is shown how catches and harvest policies change with the price of herring. Feedback policies are found for the optimally managed fishery. The management of the North Sea herring, after the moratorium was lifted in 1981, is evaluated. The results indicate that the management has been suboptimal. Under optimal management, the fishery should have stayed closed until 1983. We also find that the current stock is significantly larger than what maximises net fisheries revenues.

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