Pattern recognition to forecast seismic time series

Earthquakes arrive without previous warning and can destroy a whole city in a few seconds, causing numerous deaths and economical losses. Nowadays, a great effort is being made to develop techniques that forecast these unpredictable natural disasters in order to take precautionary measures. In this paper, clustering techniques are used to obtain patterns which model the behavior of seismic temporal data and can help to predict medium-large earthquakes. First, earthquakes are classified into different groups and the optimal number of groups, a priori unknown, is determined. Then, patterns are discovered when medium-large earthquakes happen. Results from the Spanish seismic temporal data provided by the Spanish Geographical Institute and non-parametric statistical tests are presented and discussed, showing a remarkable performance and the significance of the obtained results.

[1]  Kristy F. Tiampo,et al.  A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics , 2005 .

[2]  Charles F. Richter,et al.  Earthquake magnitude, intensity, energy, and acceleration , 1942 .

[3]  T. Utsu.  A method for determining the value of b in a formula log n=a-bM showing the magnitude frequency relation for earthquakes , 1965 .

[4]  Ota Kulhanek.  Seminar on b-value , 2005 .

[5]  K. Tsumura,et al.  Determination of Earthquake Magnitude from Total Duration of Oscillation , 1967 .

[6]  Keying Ye,et al.  Determining the Number of Clusters Using the Weighted Gap Statistic , 2007, Biometrics.

[7]  P. Sammonds,et al.  Role of pore fluids in the generation of seismic precursors to shear fracture , 1992, Nature.

[8]  Rodolfo Console,et al.  Real time earthquake forecasting in Italy , 2009 .

[9]  W. Lowrie,et al.  Fundamentals of Geophysics: Cooling of a semi-infinite half-space , 2007 .

[10]  Steven N. Ward,et al.  Methods for Evaluating Earthquake Potential and Likelihood in and around California , 2007 .

[11]  C. Siriopoulos,et al.  Combinatorial time series forecasting based on clustering algorithms and neural networks , 2004, Neural Computing & Applications.

[12]  S. Ward.  San Francisco Bay Area Earthquake Simulations: A Step Toward a Standard Physical Earthquake Model , 2000 .

[13]  O. Kulhánek,et al.  Spatial and temporal b value anomalies preceding the devastating off coast of NW Sumatra earthquake of December 26, 2004 , 2005 .

[14]  Danijel Schorlemmer,et al.  ALM: An Asperity-based Likelihood Model for California , 2007 .

[15]  Zhen Liu,et al.  Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics: California , 2005 .

[16]  J. MacQueen.  Some methods for classification and analysis of multivariate observations , 1967 .

[17]  A. Fichtner,et al.  Fundamentals of Geophysics , 1997 .

[18]  Yan Y. Kagan,et al.  A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity , 2007 .

[19]  Y. Kagan,et al.  High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M ≥ 5 Earthquakes in California , 2007 .

[20]  Kiehwa Lee,et al.  Historical Seismicity of Korea , 2006 .

[21]  Robert J. Geller,et al.  Earthquake prediction: a critical review , 1997 .

[22]  M. Wyss,et al.  Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes , 2005, Nature.

[23]  Matthew C. Gerstenberger,et al.  Short-term Aftershock Probabilities: Case Studies in California , 2007 .

[24]  C. López,et al.  MAGNITUDE FORMULAS IN THE SPANISH BULLETINS AND CATALOGUES , 2003 .

[25]  J. Mezcua,et al.  Reevaluation of Historic Earthquakes in Spain , 2004 .

[26]  Jenny A. Baglivo,et al.  Non-Poissonian Earthquake Clustering and the Hidden Markov Model as Bases for Earthquake Forecasting in California , 2007 .

[27]  Greg Hamerly,et al.  Learning the k in k-means , 2003, NIPS.

[28]  W. H. Lee,et al.  A method of estimating magnitude of local earthquakes from signal duration , 1972 .

[29]  Mark D. Petersen,et al.  Time-independent and Time-dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment for the State of California: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Model 1.0 , 2007 .

[30]  Y. Kagan,et al.  Long‐term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes , 1994 .

[31]  Matthew C. Gerstenberger,et al.  Properties of the Aftershock Sequence of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine Earthquake: Implications for Aftershock Hazard , 2002 .

[32]  Y. Kagan,et al.  Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California , 2007 .

[33]  Edward H. Field,et al.  Overview of the Working Group for the Development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) , 2005 .

[34]  Ali S. Hadi,et al.  Finding Groups in Data: An Introduction to Chster Analysis , 1991 .

[35]  Mahesh Motwani,et al.  Survey of clustering algorithms for MANET , 2009, ArXiv.

[36]  Alicia Troncoso Lora,et al.  Partitioning-Clustering Techniques Applied to the Electricity Price Time Series , 2007, IDEAL.

[37]  Antonio Jesús Martín Martín.  Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and damage assessment in Andalusia (Spain) , 1989 .

[38]  G. Ranalli.  A Statistical Study of Aftershock Sequences , 1969 .

[39]  B. Bolt,et al.  The standard error of the magnitude-frequency b value , 1982 .

[40]  A. Zollo,et al.  Space and Time Behavior of Seismic Activity at Mt. Vesuvius Volcano , 2002 .

[41]  S. J. Gibowicz,et al.  Frequency-magnitude, depth, and time relations for earthquakes in an island arc: North Island, New Zealand , 1974 .

[42]  David A. Rhoades.  Application of the EEPAS Model to Forecasting Earthquakes of Moderate Magnitude in Southern California , 2007 .

[43]  A. Zollo,et al.  Space and Time Behavior of Seismic Activity at Mt. Vesuvius Volcano, Southern Italy , 2002 .

[44]  S. Harmsen,et al.  Documentation for the 2002 update of the national seismic hazard maps , 2002 .

[45]  B. Gutenberg,et al.  Seismicity of the Earth , 1941 .

[46]  D. Muñoz,et al.  Fórmulas de magnitud en los boletines y catálogos españoles , 2003 .

[47]  P. Jáuregui,et al.  A New Methodology for Decreasing Uncertainties in the Seismic Hazard Assessment Results by Using Sensitivity Analysis. An Application to Sites in Eastern Spain , 2002 .

[48]  A. Kafka,et al.  Does the Spatial Distribution of Smaller Earthquakes Delineate Areas Where Larger Earthquakes Are Likely to Occur , 2000 .