Energy Analyses as a Tool for Sustainability: Lessons from Complex System Theory

Part 1 of this paper presents an innovative approach for study of the evolution and stability of socioeconomic systems. The approach is based on (1) several distinct views of socioeconomic systems obtained by non-equivalent descriptions of those system on different hierarchical levels and (2) equations of congruence of flows of matter, energy, human time and money across different hierarchical levels to link non-equivalent views. Because a socioeconomic system may be described as a nested dissipative adaptive system (holarchy), a few related concepts in complex system theory are discussed. Particular focus is on the crucial analysis of unavoidable conflict between short-term goals and long-term goals that affect every holarchy. Part 1 also presents a method for describing evolution of socioeconomic systems in parallel, on different hierarchical levels, an approach allowing study of the exergy budget of various nested elements of a holarchy. Part 2 first describes the procedure used to set up a database of 107 countries and comprising more than 90% of world’s population. Four applications of the approach described in Part 1 are presented: (1) BEP is an indicator of development obtained by combining only biophysical variables. BEP is better than GNP in correlating with a set of more than 20 traditional indicators of development used by the World Bank. (2) A common trajectory of development for the 107 countries and their evolution is described in an appropriate state space. (3) Equations of congruence across levels can link demographic variables, level of development, existing technology, and availability of natural resources. (4) “demographic transition” based on the dataset and approach used can be studied in terms of a shift from one metastable equilibrium of the dynamic societal energy budget to another.