Flexible planning of transmission system with large wind farm based on multi-scenario probability

The probability distribution of wind farm power output is simulated with Monte Carlo method.Based on the multi-scenario probability method, the uncertain factors,such as wind farm power output,load change and economy,are described by scenario analysis and probability calculation.The objective functions are distinguished based on the probability of scenario occurrence.With the maximum overload rate of single line as the criterion of flexible constraint and the overload situations of both single line and whole lines considered,the overload situations in steady state and N-1 accident conditions are analyzed respectively.As the attitudes of different deciders toward the line overload rate in N-1 accident condition are distinguished by the weights,the decider-oriented flexible planning scheme of power transmission system with large-scale wind farm can be quickly and accurately achieved,meeting the actual needs of project much better.Simulation of Garver 6-bus system shows its feasibility.