Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of a Crew Size Evaluation Method

Abstract : Determining the crew complement needed on a ship is a complex and important process. The level of automation, type of cargo, and type of trade route all affect crew requirements on commercial ships. Technological change and economic pressure is fueling an increased interest in sailing with smaller crews. This in turn has prompted a critical look at traditional methods for determining crew size. The Coast Guard recently developed a computer model to evaluate crew size based on the shipboard tasks required to be performed. This tool, the Crew Size Evaluation Model (CSEM), is a task network model which simulates shipboard activities by specifying when each task occurs and assigning qualified crew members to perform them. The report describes the rigorous validation and sensitivity analyses used to evaluate CSEM. It was found that CSEM is able to provide a valid and flexible analysis of the effects of many different operational factors on crew size.