An Objective Clear-Air Turbulence Forecasting Technique: Verification and Operational Use

Abstract An objective technique for forecasting clear-air turbulence (CAT) is described. An index is calculated based on the product of horizontal deformation and vertical wind shear derived from numerical model forecast winds aloft. The forecast technique has been evaluated and is now in operational use at two forecast centers with international aviation responsibilities: the National Meteorological Center (NMC) in Washington, D.C., and the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC) in Omaha, Nebraska. The index is also an operational forecast tool at the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service (AES), and the National Aviation Weather Advisory Unit (NAWAU) in Kansas City, Missouri, both responsible for domestic aviation forecasts. The AFGWC index also includes horizontal convergence in its calculation. Thresholds were selected empirically by comparing index values with the location and intensity of observed CAT. Verification indicates that the index is quite reliable. The probability of detection (POD) va...