Uncertainty in Egress Models and Data : Investigation of Dominant Parameters and Extent of Their Impact on Predicted Outcomes – Initial Findings

Computer egress modeling is becoming a common tool in the building design industry. Models can provide insight into the movement of people through buildings, and sometimes provide a visual tool that is useful for presentation of a design to architects, clients, and authorities. The reality of egress modeling is that current methods of calculation must somehow account for a degree of human behavior that is not necessarily predictable. Most egress models attempt this through use of correlations based on available data, or through the addition of safety factors to the model results. When using an egress model in building design, there are many uncertain variables, among them: number of building occupants, occupant characteristics (size, age, etc.), movement speeds, pre-movement times, and familiarity with the building.