A proof-of-concept study for the prediction of the de-novo atherosclerotic plaque development using finite elements*

The type of the atherosclerotic plaque has significant clinical meaning since plaque vulnerability depends on its type. In this work, we present a computational approach which predicts the development of new plaques in coronary arteries. More specifically, we employ a multi-level model which simulates the blood fluid dynamics, the lipoprotein transport and their accumulation in the arterial wall and the triggering of inflammation using convection-diffusion-reaction equations and in the final level, we estimate the plaque volume which causes the arterial wall thickening. The novelty of this work relies on the conceptual approach that using the information from 94 patients with computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) imaging at two time points we identify the correlation of the computational results with the real plaque components detected in CTCA. In the next step, we use these correlations to generate two types of de-novo plaques: calcified and non-calcified. Evaluation of the model’s performance is achieved using eleven patients, who present de-novo plaques at the follow-up imaging. The results demonstrate that the computationally generated plaques are associated significantly with the real plaques indicating that the proposed approach could be used for the prediction of specific plaque type formation.