An evaluation of the applicability of the NGA models to ground-motion prediction in the Euro-Mediterranean region

The first phase of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project has now finished, resulting in the publication of five new sets of empirical ground-motion models for PGA, PGV and response spectral ordinates. These models mark a significant advancement in the state-of-the-art in empirical ground-motion modelling and include many effects that are not accounted for in existing European equations. Under the assumption that the Euro-Mediterranean database from which the European relationships are derived is unlikely to drastically change in the near future, a prudent question to ask is: can the NGA models be applied in Europe? In order to answer this question, the NGA model of Boore and Atkinson (PEER Report 2007/01, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Berkeley, CA, 234 pp., 2007), which is shown to be representative of the NGA models as a suite, is compared with the dataset used for the development of the most recent European empirical ground-motion models for response spectral ordinates and peak ground velocity. The comparisons are made using analyses of model residuals and the likelihood approach of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 94(6):2164–2185, 2004). The analyses indicate that for most engineering applications, and particularly for displacement-based approaches to seismic design, the NGA models may confidently be applied within Europe. Furthermore, it is recommended that they be used in conjunction with existing European models to provide constraint on finite-fault effects and non-linear site response within logic-tree frameworks. The findings also point to the potential benefits of merging the NGA and European datasets.