Developing Conceptual Models for Complex Ecological Risk Assessments

Conceptual models are representations of the assumed relationship between sources and effects. They serve three important purposes. (1) Their creation compels assessors to think through and clarify their assumptions concerning the activities being assessed. (2) They serve as a communication tool for conveying those assumptions to risk managers and stakeholders. (3) They provide a basis for organizing and conducting the risk assessment. Conceptual models for risk assessments of chemical contaminants have not been problematical because they simply portray the flow of the contaminant from a source to a receptor that experiences toxic effects. However, ecological risk assessments must increasingly deal with direct and indirect effects on multiple endpoint receptors and with multiple complex activities including both physical effects and toxic effects. This complexity may result in conceptual models that are incomplete, ambiguous, or simply too complex to be understood. This paper presents a strategy for creat...