Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Impacts of Biomass and Petroleum Energy Futures in Africa

We analyzed the mortality impacts and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced by household energy use in Africa. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, household indoor air pollution will cause an estimated 9.8 million premature deaths by the year 2030. Gradual and rapid transitions to charcoal would delay 1.0 million and 2.8 million deaths, respectively; similar transitions to petroleum fuels would delay 1.3 million and 3.7 million deaths. Cumulative BAU GHG emissions will be 6.7 billion tons of carbon by 2050, which is 5.6% of Africa's total emissions. Large shifts to the use of fossil fuels would reduce GHG emissions by 1 to 10%. Charcoal-intensive future scenarios using current practices increase emissions by 140 to 190%; the increase can be reduced to 5 to 36% using currently available technologies for sustainable production or potentially reduced even more with investment in technological innovation.

[1]  Daniel M Kammen,et al.  Greenhouse gas implications of household energy technology in Kenya. , 2003, Environmental science & technology.

[2]  Daniel M. Kammen,et al.  Comparison of Emissions and Residential Exposure from Traditional and Improved Cookstoves in Kenya , 2000 .

[3]  M. Thring.  World Energy Outlook , 1977 .

[4]  S. Karekezi.  Poverty and energy in Africa--A brief review , 2002 .

[5]  宁北芳,et al.  疟原虫var基因转换速率变化导致抗原变异[英]／Paul H, Robert P, Christodoulou Z, et al//Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A , 2005 .

[6]  Chandra Venkataraman,et al.  Global atmospheric impacts of residential fuels , 2004 .

[7]  Z. Bhutta,et al.  How many child deaths can we prevent this year? , 2003, The Lancet.

[8]  Kirk R. Smith,et al.  In Praise of Petroleum? , 2002, Science.

[9]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis , 2001 .

[10]  Nigel Bruce,et al.  Birth weight and exposure to kitchen wood smoke during pregnancy in rural Guatemala. , 2002, Environmental health perspectives.

[11]  Alan D. Lopez,et al.  Comparative quantification of health risks. Global and regional burden of disease attributable to selected major risk factors. Volume 1. , 2004 .

[12]  J. Lawson.  Comparative Quantification of Health Risks. Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors , 2006 .

[13]  V. Joshi,et al.  GREENHOUSE GASES FROM SMALL-SCALE COMBUSTION DEVICES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: PHASE IIA Household Stoves in India , 2000 .

[14]  W. Baumeister,et al.  Supporting online material Materials and methods , 2002 .

[15]  Majid Ezzati,et al.  For Personal Use. Only Reproduce with Permission from the Lancet Publishing Group , 2022 .

[16]  Robert Blair Vocci.  Geology , 1882, Nature.

[17]  Ken R. Smith,et al.  Maternal Exposure to Biomass Smoke and Reduced Birth Weight in Zimbabwe , 2004 .

[18]  W. Patterson.  Energy policy , 1978, Nature.