Integrated modeling of bilateral photo-identification data in mark-recapture analyses.

When natural marks provide sufficient resolution to identify individual animals, noninvasive sampling using cameras has a number of distinct advantages relative to "traditional" mark-recapture methods. However, analyses from photo-identification records often pose additional challenges. For example, it is often unclear how to link left- and right-side photos to the same individual, and previous studies have primarily used data from just one side for statistical inference. Here we describe how a recently developed statistical method can be adapted for integrated mark-recapture analyses using bilateral photo-identification records. The approach works by assuming that the true encounter history for each animal is a latent (unobserved) realization from a multinomial distribution. Based on the type of photo encounter (e.g., right, left, or both sides), the recorded (observed) encounter histories can only arise from certain combinations of these latent histories. In this manner, the approach properly accounts for uncertainty about the true number of distinct animals observed in the study. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling procedure, we conduct a small simulation study to show that this approach has reasonable properties and outperforms other methods. We further illustrate our approach by estimating population size from bobcat photo-identification records. Although motivated by bilateral photo-identification records, we note that the proposed methodology can be used to combine and jointly analyze other types of mark-recapture data (e.g., photo and DNA records).

[1]  J. Holmberg,et al.  Robust, comparable population metrics through collaborative photo-monitoring of whale sharks Rhincodon typus. , 2008, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[2]  J. Nichols,et al.  ESTIMATION OF TIGER DENSITIES IN INDIA USING PHOTOGRAPHIC CAPTURES AND RECAPTURES , 1998 .

[3]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Statistical inference from capture data on closed animal populations , 1980 .

[4]  J Andrew Royle,et al.  Bayesian inference in camera trapping studies for a class of spatial capture-recapture models. , 2009, Ecology.

[5]  M. Conroy,et al.  Analysis and Management of Animal Populations , 2002 .

[6]  Tarun Nair,et al.  Rigorous gharial population estimation in the Chambal: implications for conservation and management of a globally threatened crocodilian , 2012 .

[7]  M. D. Samuel,et al.  Influence of neck bands on recovery and survival rates of Canada geese , 1990 .

[8]  P. Green Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo computation and Bayesian model determination , 1995 .

[9]  Paul M. Thompson,et al.  ESTIMATING SIZE AND ASSESSING TRENDS IN A COASTAL BOTTLENOSE DOLPHIN POPULATION , 1999 .

[10]  Matthew R. Schofield,et al.  Incorporating Genotype Uncertainty into Mark–Recapture‐Type Models For Estimating Abundance Using DNA Samples , 2009, Biometrics.

[11]  J. Calambokidis,et al.  ABUNDANCE OF BLUE AND HUMPBACK WHALES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ESTIMATED BY CAPTURE‐RECAPTURE AND LINE‐TRANSECT METHODS , 2004 .

[12]  Marianne K. Soisalo,et al.  Estimating the density of a jaguar population in the Brazilian Pantanal using camera-traps and capture–recapture sampling in combination with GPS radio-telemetry , 2006 .

[13]  Paul M. Thompson,et al.  A Bayesian Capture–Recapture Population Model With Simultaneous Estimation of Heterogeneity , 2008 .

[14]  Lex Hiby,et al.  Analysis of photo‐id data allowing for missed matches and individuals identified from opposite sides , 2013 .

[15]  Olivier Gimenez,et al.  A new method for estimating animal abundance with two sources of data in capture–recapture studies , 2011 .

[16]  D. Rubin,et al.  Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM - algorithm plus discussions on the paper , 1977 .

[17]  Paul M. Thompson,et al.  A Bayesian estimate of harbour seal survival using sparse photo‐identification data , 2007 .

[18]  William A Link,et al.  Uncovering a Latent Multinomial: Analysis of Mark–Recapture Data with Misidentification , 2010, Biometrics.

[19]  S. Bonner Response to: a new method for estimating animal abundance with two sources of data in capture–recapture studies , 2013 .

[20]  R Core Team,et al.  R: A language and environment for statistical computing. , 2014 .

[21]  A. Foley,et al.  Abundance Estimate of Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Lower River Shannon candidate Special Area of Conservation, Ireland , 2012 .

[22]  Zaven Arzoumanian,et al.  An astronomical pattern-matching algorithm for computer-aided identification of whale sharks Rhincodon typus , 2005 .