The Cambridge Handbook of Violent Behavior and Aggression: Overview of a Semi-Parametric, Group-Based Approach for Analyzing Trajectories of Development

A developmental trajectory describes the course of a behavior over age or time. This paper will provide an overview lecture of a semi-parametric, group-based method for analyzing developmental trajectories. This methodology provides an alternative to assuming a homogenous population of trajectories as is done in standard growth modeling. Four capabilities will be described: (1) the capability to identify rather than assume distinctive groups of trajectories, (23) the capability to estimate the proportion of the population following each such trajectory group, (3) the capability to relate group membership probability to individual characteristics and circumstances, and (4) the capability to use the group membership probabilities for various other purposes such as creating profiles of group members. In addition, two important extensions of the method of will be described –the capability to add time-varying covariates to trajectory models and the capability to estimate joint trajectory models of distinct but related behaviors. The former provides the statistical capacity for testing whether a contemporaneous factor, such as an experimental intervention or a non-experimental event like pregnancy, deflects a pre-existing trajectory. The latter provides the capability to study unfolding of distinct but related behaviors such as childhood problem behavior and adolescent drug abuse.

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