Climatic and economic drivers of the Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) fishery: implications for the future

This paper illustrates how climate, management, and economic drivers of a fishery interact to affect fishing. Retro- spective data from the Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) catcher-processer fishery were used to model the impact of climate on spatial and temporal variation in catch and fishing locations and make inferences about harvester behavior in a warmer climate. Models based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios predict a 40% decrease in sea ice by 2050, resulting in warmer Bering Sea temperatures. We find that differences in the value of catch result in disparate behavior between winter and summer seasons. In winter, warm temperatures and high abundances drive intensive effort early in the season to harvest earlier-maturing roe. In summer, warmer ocean temperatures were associated with lower catch rates and approximately 4% less fishing in the northern fishing grounds, contrary to expectations derived from climate-envelope-type models that suggest fisheries will follow fish poleward. Production-related spatial price differences affected the effort distribu- tion by a similar magnitude. However, warm, low-abundance years have not been historically observed, increasing uncertainty about future fishing conditions. Overall, annual variation in ocean temperatures and economic factors has thus far been more significant than long-term climate change-related shifts in the fishery's distribution of effort.

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