Dealing with uncertainty: integrating local and scientific knowledge of the climate and weather.

While climate science has made great progress in the projection of weather and climate information, its uptake by local communities remains largely elusive. This paper describes two innovative approaches that strengthen understanding between the providers and users of weather and climate information and support-appropriate application: (1) knowledge timelines, which compare different sources and levels of certainty in community and scientific weather and climate information; and (2) participatory downscaling, which supports users to translate national and regional information into a range of outcomes at the local level. Results from piloting these approaches among flood-prone communities in Senegal and drought-prone farmers in Kenya highlight the importance of co-producing 'user-useful' climate information. Recognising that disaster risk management actions draw on a wide range of knowledge sources, climate information that can effectively support community-based decision-making needs to be integrated with local knowledge systems and based on an appreciation of the inherent uncertainty of weather and climate information.

[1]  Elisabeth Stephens,et al.  Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles—lessons from numerical weather prediction , 2012 .

[2]  Anthony Patt,et al.  Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe , 2002 .

[3]  Ortwin Renn.  The role of risk communication and public dialogue for improving risk management , 1998 .

[4]  Willem A. Landman,et al.  Understanding and Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability - The Producer Perspective , 2010 .

[5]  Richard Washington,et al.  African Climate Change: Taking the Shorter Route , 2006 .

[6]  K. Malik,et al.  Human Development Report 2013. The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World , 2013 .

[7]  A. Nightingale,et al.  A Feminist in the Forest: Situated Knowledges and Mixing Methods in Natural Resource Management , 2003 .

[8]  B. Rajasekaran.  A framework for incorporating indigenous knowledge systems into agricultural research and extension organizations for sustainable agricultural development in India , 1994 .

[9]  F. Berkes.  Rethinking Community‐Based Conservation , 2004 .

[10]  M. Betsill,et al.  Food security in Southern Africa: assessing the use and value of ENSO information , 1997 .

[11]  James Hansen,et al.  Potential value of GCM-based seasonal rainfall forecasts for maize management in semi-arid Kenya , 2009 .

[12]  Ian Scoones,et al.  New Ecology and the Social Sciences: What Prospects for a Fruitful Engagement? , 1999 .

[13]  G. Leclerc,et al.  Estimating the Potential Economic Value of Seasonal Forecasts in West Africa: A Long-Term Ex-Ante Assessment in Senegal , 2010 .

[14]  J. Norberg,et al.  ADAPTIVE GOVERNANCE OF SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS , 2005 .

[15]  A. Agrawal.  Dismantling the Divide Between Indigenous and Scientific Knowledge , 1995 .

[16]  Ioan Fazey,et al.  Integrating local and scientific knowledge for environmental management. , 2010, Journal of environmental management.

[17]  M. Kesby,et al.  Retheorizing Empowerment‐through‐Participation as a Performance in Space: Beyond Tyranny to Transformation , 2005, Signs: Journal of Women in Culture and Society.

[18]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[19]  David S. G. Thomas,et al.  Equity and justice in climate change adaptation amongst natural-resource-dependent societies , 2005 .

[20]  A. Millner,et al.  What determines perceived value of seasonal climate forecasts? A theoretical analysis , 2011 .

[21]  Ilan Kelman,et al.  The potential for combining indigenous and western knowledge in reducing vulnerability to environmental hazards in small island developing states , 2007 .

[22]  D. Kuhn.  Conditional reasoning in children. , 1977 .

[23]  W. Firestone.  Meaning in Method: The Rhetoric of Quantitative and Qualitative Research , 1987 .

[24]  M. Gibbons,et al.  Re-Thinking Science: Knowledge and the Public in an Age of Uncertainty , 2003 .

[25]  David I. F. Grimes,et al.  Satellite-based rainfall estimation for river flow forecasting in Africa. II: African Easterly Waves, convection and rainfall , 2003 .

[26]  S. Cronin,et al.  Participatory methods of incorporating scientific with traditional knowledge for volcanic hazard management on Ambae Island, Vanuatu , 2004 .

[27]  Petra Tschakert,et al.  Anticipatory Learning for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience , 2010 .

[28]  Neville Nicholls,et al.  Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Climate Prediction , 1999 .

[29]  Mike Pearson,et al.  Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future , 2022 .

[30]  Ilan Kelman,et al.  Framework for integrating indigenous and scientific knowledge for disaster risk reduction. , 2010, Disasters.