Prospective ageing and economic growth in Europe

We assess empirically the role played by prospective ageing measures as a predictor of income growth in Europe. We show that prospective ageing measures which move beyond chronological age and incorporate changes in life expectancy are able to explain better the recent long-run growth experience of European economies. The improvement in explanatory power of prospective ageing indicators as compared to standard measures based on chronological age is particularly relevant for long-run economic growth horizons.

[1]  W. Sanderson,et al.  Rethinking age and aging , 2008 .

[2]  David Canning,et al.  The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change , 2003 .

[3]  G. Betcherman,et al.  From Red to Gray: The 'Third Transition' of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union , 2007 .

[4]  D. Canning,et al.  Implications of population ageing for economic growth , 2010 .

[5]  F. Diebold,et al.  Comparing Predictive Accuracy , 1994, Business Cycles.

[6]  W. Sanderson,et al.  Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age , 2005, Nature.

[7]  Alexia Prskawetz,et al.  Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth. A survey , 2010, Central Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[8]  D. Weil,et al.  Accounting for the Effect of Health on Economic Growth , 2005 .

[9]  David Canning,et al.  Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth , 2011 .

[10]  J. Williamson,et al.  Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia , 1997 .

[11]  Romain Wacziarg,et al.  A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions , 2004 .

[12]  Warren C. Sanderson,et al.  Remeasuring Aging , 2010, Science.

[13]  Pablo Hernández de Cos,et al.  Does Population Ageing Promote Faster Economic Growth? , 2008 .

[14]  Uwe Sunde,et al.  Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition , 2009, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[15]  W. Sanderson,et al.  The coming acceleration of global population ageing , 2008, Nature.

[16]  H. Verbon,et al.  Aging and public pensions in an overlapping-generations model. , 1995 .

[17]  Daron Acemoglu,et al.  Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth , 2006, Journal of Political Economy.

[18]  David Canning,et al.  The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach , 2004 .

[19]  Michael Berlemann,et al.  Estimating Aggregate Capital Stocks Using the Perpetual Inventory Method , 2012 .

[20]  James D. Feyrer.  Demographics and Productivity , 2002, The Review of Economics and Statistics.

[21]  Francis T. Lui,et al.  Intergenerational Trade, Longevity, and Economic Growth , 1991, Journal of Political Economy.

[22]  B. Malmberg,et al.  European Union economic growth and the age structure of the population , 2009 .

[23]  K. Prettner.  Population aging and endogenous economic growth , 2009, Journal of population economics.

[24]  Tomas Kögel.  Youth dependency and total factor productivity , 2001 .

[25]  W. Sanderson,et al.  Reconstruction of populations by age, sex and level of educational attainment for 120 countries for 1970-2000 , 2007 .

[26]  W. Sanderson,et al.  Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend? , 2014, Demography.

[27]  R. Barro.  Health and Economic Growth , 2013 .

[28]  D. Narayan,et al.  The Local Level Institutions Study : local institutions, poverty and household welfare in Bolivia , 2000 .

[29]  M. Raiser,et al.  Golden Growth: Restoring the Lustre of the European Economic Model , 2012 .