Un modello dinamico lineare per la previsione dei tempi di approvvigionamento della componentistica
暂无分享,去创建一个
Forecasts of delivery times of components from subcontractors is becoming more and more important for engineering companies, which are required to build industrial plants not only at lower prices but also in shorter time than they used to do. We consider a Bayesian dynamic linear model, adapting a method, previously used in forecasting costs when bidding for industrial plants, in which external information, e.g. expert's opinion, is used
[1] H. Thomas,et al. Subjective Probability and its Measurement , 1973 .
[2] Terje Aven,et al. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis , 2002, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..
[3] Nozer D. Singpurwalla,et al. Inference and Predictions from Poisson Point Processes Incorporating Expert Knowledge , 1995 .
[4] Paola Sebastiani,et al. Bayesian methods , 2003 .