THE DEMOCRATISATION OF SOUTH AFRICA: TRANSITION THEORY TESTED1

Introduction Some two years have elapsed since the first-ever elections based on universal adult suffrage were held in South Africa. During this period, the institutional forms, content and trajectory of the democratisation process have been sufficiently defined to again permit comparison with transitions from authoritarian rule to democracy that occurred in Latin America and Central Europe in the late-1980s. In particular, the political contours of South Africa's 'new' society are now sharply enough in focus for us to assess whether 'transition theory', as it is loosely referred to, can shed light on experiences here and so provide a broader context in which to situate and explain past, present and future outcomes in the struggle to forge a new political order. In essence, much of transition theory is the product of reflection upon, and