New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury

Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.

[1]  Muyin Wang,et al.  A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? , 2009 .

[2]  E. Hunke,et al.  Age characteristics in a multidecadal Arctic sea ice simulation , 2009 .

[3]  Laurence C. Smith,et al.  Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access , 2013, Climatic Change.

[4]  G. Danabasoglu,et al.  The Community Climate System Model Version 4 , 2011 .

[5]  Laurence C. Smith,et al.  Divergent long-term trajectories of human access to the Arctic , 2011 .

[6]  Øystein Jensen,et al.  The IMO Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-covered Waters , 2007 .

[7]  Ron Kwok,et al.  Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) over Arctic sea ice: Retrieval of freeboard , 2007 .

[8]  A. Thomson,et al.  The representative concentration pathways: an overview , 2011 .

[9]  Marika M. Holland,et al.  Improved sea ice shortwave radiation physics in CCSM4: The impact of melt ponds and aerosols on Arctic Sea ice , 2012 .

[10]  Marika M. Holland,et al.  Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice , 2006 .

[11]  E. Elliot-Meisel.  Politics, Pride, and Precedent: The United States and Canada in the Northwest Passage , 2009 .

[12]  M. Blunden.  Geopolitics and the Northern Sea Route , 2012 .

[13]  B. Ellis,et al.  Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009 Report , 2009 .

[14]  L. Brigham.  Marine protection in the Arctic cannot wait , 2011, Nature.

[15]  M. Holland,et al.  Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice , 2012 .

[16]  D. Cressey.  Scientific challenges in the Arctic: Open water , 2011, Nature.

[17]  Halvor Schøyen,et al.  The Northern Sea Route versus the Suez Canal: Cases from Bulk Shipping , 2011 .

[18]  William J. Emery,et al.  Satellite-derived evolution of Arctic sea ice age: October 1978 to March 2003 , 2004, IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters.

[19]  W. Emery,et al.  A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: Increased potential for rapid, extensive sea‐ice loss , 2007 .

[20]  Jacob Kronbak,et al.  The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe , 2010 .

[21]  Rob Shields,et al.  Contested Sovereignty in a Changing Arctic , 2010 .

[22]  Sébastien Pelletier,et al.  Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: an analysis of shipowners’ intentions , 2011 .

[23]  M. Holland,et al.  Twenty-First-Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4 , 2012 .

[24]  Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment,et al.  Status on implementation of the AMSA 2009 report recommendations. , 2011 .