Management Summary

International macroeconomic environment: global and European growth slows down somewhat as downside risks prevail Global growth has been weakening since the second half of 2018, leading to downward revisions in current forecasts. The revised outlook suggests a delay in the return of euro area inflation to its target rate. Hence, the ECB is expanding its accommodative monetary policy stance, while international stock indices have been volatile amid global trade tensions and geopolitical downside risks. Favorable macroeconomic conditions supported banking sector activity in most countries of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) in 2018. Growth was especially strong in the CESEE EU Member States, benefiting from booming labor markets and strong investment demand. Robust GDP growth went hand in hand with a further acceleration of credit growth amid low interest rates and ample liquidity. This contributed to a further reduction of nonperforming loans (NPLs) and an increase in banking sector profitability. Economic growth and banking sector results were also solid outside the EU, for instance in Russia and Ukraine. Only Turkey suffered from economic turbulences sending the economy into recession in the second half of 2018, which weighed on credit growth, loan quality and banking sector profitability.

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