Transient stability assessment via decision trees and multivariate adaptive regression splines

Abstract This paper focuses on the practical implementation of online transient stability assessment (TSA) tools that employ, in conjunction with high-speed synchronized phasor measurements obtained from phasor measurement units (PMUs), classification and regression trees (CART) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) models. To build CART and MARS models that are amenable to real-time applications, pertinent transient stability-related system characteristics are identified; these include voltage and current phasors, deviations from the centre-of-inertia angle and speed, and potential- and kinetic-energy related quantities. These characteristic quantities are evaluated using PMU measurements and then leveraged to train CART and MARS models for the full Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The resultant models are tested and validated with the full WECC system using credible contingency scenarios in the BC Hydro subsystem. High prediction accuracy rates are observed for both CART and MARS methods, making them attractive options for real-time TSA.

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