Relationships between soil test phosphorus (STP) and release of P in surface and subsurface runoff are needed to help identify source areas for implementing management strategies to limit P loss to water. To determine whether soil P release could be predicted either by STP values, sorption-desorption indices, or the degree of soil saturation with phosphorus (DSSP), 11 sites with contrasting chemical properties and management histories were sampled from long-term field trials in the UK. Each site offered up to three treatments, resulting in a total of 29 soil samples. The results showed that the amount of P desorbed using a successive dilution procedure had no relationship with either total soil P content or P sorption capacity. The most significant property was the extent of P saturation. There was little desorption for DSSP values below 10%; above this point, the amount of P desorbed increased linearly with the DSSP. Five STP methods (Olsen, Mehlich-3, acidified ammonium oxalate-oxalic acid, Fe 2 O 3 -coated paper strip, and distilled water) were compared to predict their effectiveness in predicting potential P release to water. While STP values obtained using acidified ammonium oxalate proved to be least effective, those extracted with water correlated best with the amount of P desorbed, accounting for 96% of the variability in differential P release from the soils.