Impact of policy incentives on electric vehicles development: a system dynamics-based evolutionary game theoretical analysis

A system dynamics-based evolutionary game theoretical analysis is proposed to examine the impact of policy incentives, i.e., price subsidy and taxation preference on electric vehicles (EVs) industry development. Two case scenarios were used to distinguish policy performance by dividing it into a static and dynamic incentive. The result reflected that the game in implementation of the static incentive policy did not achieve stable equilibrium, indicating that such a policy is not effective for driving the development of the EVs industry. However, the game had stable equilibrium when dynamic incentive policy was implemented. The taxation preference had better performance in incentivizing EVs production than the direct subsidy. The study is expected to provide insight into policy making in the industrial transition toward low-carbon consumption. Limitations are given to indicate opportunities for further research.Graphical abstract

[1]  Xiang Cheng,et al.  Electric vehicles for greenhouse gas reduction in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis , 2017 .

[2]  Chao Yang,et al.  The evolutionary dynamics of China's electric vehicle industry - Taxes vs. subsidies , 2017, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[3]  Joseph R. Huscroft,et al.  Green information, green certification and consumer perceptions of remanufctured automobile parts , 2018 .

[4]  Manoj Kumar Tiwari,et al.  A decision framework for the analysis of green supply chain contracts: An evolutionary game approach , 2012, Expert Syst. Appl..

[5]  Kristin Ystmark Bjerkan,et al.  Incentives for promoting Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption in Norway , 2016 .

[6]  Maureen E. Hassall,et al.  Evolutionary game analysis and stability control scenarios of coal mine safety inspection system in China based on system dynamics , 2015 .

[7]  Weiyong Zhang,et al.  The coupling relationship between standard development and technology advancement: A game theoretical perspective , 2017, Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

[8]  Ahmad Makui,et al.  Government financial intervention in green and regular supply chains: Multi-level game theory approach , 2016 .

[9]  Karolina Safarzyńska,et al.  A higher rebound effect under bounded rationality: Interactions between car mobility and electricity generation , 2018, Energy Economics.

[10]  M. Weinstein.  Lyapunov stability of ground states of nonlinear dispersive evolution equations , 1986 .

[11]  Jing Dong,et al.  Design government incentive schemes for promoting electric taxis in China , 2018 .

[12]  K. Govindan,et al.  A system dynamics model based on evolutionary game theory for green supply chain management diffusion among Chinese manufacturers , 2014 .

[13]  Raymond R. Tan,et al.  A game theory approach for corporate environmental risk mitigation , 2018 .

[14]  Xingping Zhang,et al.  The Cultivation of Electric Vehicles Market in China: Dilemma and Solution , 2014 .

[15]  P. Helo,et al.  Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach , 2014 .

[16]  Theo Lieven,et al.  Policy measures to promote electric mobility – A global perspective , 2015 .

[17]  D. Friedman.  EVOLUTIONARY GAMES IN ECONOMICS , 1991 .

[18]  Jong-Hyun Park,et al.  Perceived value and adoption intention for electric vehicles in Korea: Moderating effects of environmental traits and government supports , 2018, Energy.

[19]  José Ricardo Sodré,et al.  A review on electric vehicles and their interaction with smart grids: the case of Brazil , 2015, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy.

[20]  R. Zhao,et al.  For the sustainable performance of the carbon reduction labeling policies under an evolutionary game simulation , 2016 .

[21]  Danhua Ouyang,et al.  Progress of Chinese electric vehicles industrialization in 2015: A review , 2017 .

[22]  Reza Mahmoudi,et al.  Sustainable supply chains under government intervention with a real-world case study: An evolutionary game theoretic approach , 2018, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[23]  P. Ji,et al.  Developing green purchasing relationships for the manufacturing industry: An evolutionary game theory perspective , 2015 .

[24]  Qinglan Han,et al.  Development of electric vehicles for China’s power generation portfolio: A regional economic and environmental analysis , 2017 .

[25]  Zhong-Zhong Jiang,et al.  Evolutionary game analysis and regulatory strategies for online group-buying based on system dynamics , 2018, Enterp. Inf. Syst..

[26]  Tiaojun Xiao,et al.  Outsourcing strategy and production disruption of supply chain with demand and capacity allocation uncertainties , 2015 .

[27]  Hewu Wang,et al.  Levelized costs of conventional and battery electric vehicles in china: Beijing experiences , 2015, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.

[28]  M. Noori,et al.  Development of an agent-based model for regional market penetration projections of electric vehicles in the United States , 2016 .

[29]  Suzanna Long,et al.  Mass deployment of sustainable transportation: evaluation of factors that influence electric vehicle adoption , 2017, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy.

[30]  Maïder Saint Jean,et al.  Sectoral systems of environmental innovation: An application to the French automotive industry , 2009 .

[31]  Johan Jansson,et al.  Advances in consumer electric vehicle adoption research: A review and research agenda , 2015 .

[32]  Qingyun Xu,et al.  Analysis of Supply Chain under Different Subsidy Policies of the Government , 2016 .

[33]  Ning Wang,et al.  Assessment of the incentives on electric vehicle promotion in China , 2017 .

[34]  Xiang Zhang,et al.  Reference-Dependent Electric Vehicle Production Strategy Considering Subsidies and Consumer Trade-Offs , 2013 .

[35]  J. M. Smith,et al.  The Logic of Animal Conflict , 1973, Nature.

[36]  Tiaojun Xiao,et al.  Pricing and green level decisions of a green supply chain with governmental interventions under fuzzy uncertainties , 2017 .

[37]  Stefan Tscharaktschiew,et al.  The optimal subsidy on electric vehicles in German metropolitan areas: A spatial general equilibrium analysis , 2013 .

[38]  Jiaojie Han,et al.  Interaction between enterprises and consumers in a market of carbon-labeled products: a game theoretical analysis , 2017, Environmental Science and Pollution Research.

[39]  Pierpaolo Girardi,et al.  A comparative LCA of an electric vehicle and an internal combustion engine vehicle using the appropriate power mix: the Italian case study , 2015, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[40]  James R. Brown,et al.  Market orientation, competitive advantage, and performance: A demand-based perspective , 2009 .

[41]  P. Deutz,et al.  Using game theory to describe strategy selection for environmental risk and carbon emissions reduction in the green supply chain , 2012 .

[42]  P. Plötz,et al.  Who will buy electric vehicles? Identifying early adopters in Germany , 2014 .

[43]  Du Zhili,et al.  Development path of electric vehicles in China under environmental and energy security constraints , 2019, Resources, Conservation and Recycling.

[44]  R. Alvarez,et al.  Analyzing consumer attitudes towards electric vehicle purchasing intentions in Spain: Technological limitations and vehicle confidence , 2016 .

[45]  Dengfeng Li,et al.  Manufacturing Decisions and Government Subsidies for Electric Vehicles in China: A Maximal Social Welfare Perspective , 2018 .

[46]  K. S. Gallagher,et al.  Giving Green to Get Green: Incentives and Consumer Adoption of Hybrid Vehicle Technology , 2008 .

[47]  Chao Xu,et al.  A system dynamics-based decision-making tool and strategy optimization simulation of green building development in China , 2018, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy.

[48]  Lei Xu,et al.  From government to market and from producer to consumer: Transition of policy mix towards clean mobility in China , 2016 .

[49]  Yenming J. Chen,et al.  Impact of government financial intervention on competition among green supply chains , 2012 .

[50]  Michael McGuire,et al.  A software based simulation for cleaner production: A game between manufacturers and government , 2013 .

[51]  Xiang Zhang,et al.  Incentive Policies from 2006 to 2016 and New Energy Vehicle Adoption in 2010–2020 in China , 2016 .

[52]  Lizhi Wang,et al.  An oligopoly model to analyze the market and social welfare for green manufacturing industry , 2014 .

[53]  Scott A. Neslin,et al.  Driving Online and Offline Sales: The Cross-Channel Effects of Traditional, Online Display, and Paid Search Advertising , 2013 .

[54]  R. Zhao,et al.  An Interaction between Government and Manufacturer in Implementation of Cleaner Production: A Multi-Stage Game Theoretical Analysis , 2015 .