Neurological deterioration in acute ischemic stroke: potential predictors and associated factors in the European cooperative acute stroke study (ECASS) I.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE The present study was undertaken to identify potential predictors of and factors associated with early and late progression in acute stroke. We performed secondary analysis of the clinical, biochemical, and radiological data recorded in the acute phase of stroke patients enrolled in the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study (ECASS) I. METHODS Early progressing stroke (EPS) was diagnosed when there was a decrease of > or = 2 points in consciousness or motor power or a decrease of > or = 3 points in speech scores in the Scandinavian Neurological Stroke Scale from baseline to the 24-hour evaluation, and late progressing stroke (LPS) was diagnosed when 1 of these decreases occurred between the 24-hour evaluation and the evaluation at day 7. Using logistic regression analyses, we looked for baseline variables that predicted EPS and LPS and for factors measured after the early or late acute phase and associated with the 2 clinical courses. RESULTS Of the 615 patients studied, 231 (37.5%) worsened during the first 24 hours after inclusion. The overall incidence of EPS was 37% in the placebo group and 38% in the recombinant tissue plasminogen activator group (P=0.68, Fisher's Exact Test). Focal hypodensity (odds ratio [OR], 1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 2.9) and hyperdensity of the middle cerebral artery sign (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 3.1) on baseline computed tomography, longer delay until treatment (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1. 4) and history of coronary heart disease (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2. 8) and diabetes (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.1) were independent prognostic factors for EPS. Extent of hypodensity >33% in the middle cerebral artery territory (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.6 to 4.0) and brain swelling (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 3.2) on CT at 24 hours but not hemorrhagic transformation of cerebral infarct nor decrease in systolic blood pressure within the first 24 hours after treatment were associated with EPS in multivariate analyses. LPS was observed in 20.3% of patients. Older age, a low neurological score, and brain swelling at admission independently predicted late worsening. CONCLUSION In the setting of a multicenter trial, EPS and LPS are mainly related to computed tomographic signs of cerebral edema. Treatment with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator, hemorrhagic transformation, and moderate changes in systolic blood pressure did not influence the early clinical course.