How does industrial structure change impact carbon dioxide emissions? A comparative analysis focusing on nine provincial regions in China

Abstract China as a whole is undergoing rapid industrial structure change, but this process is proceeding in a particularly unequal manner across regions. Understanding these changes and their associated impacts on CO2 emissions in these regions is a vital step toward appropriately targeted policy making. In this paper, we conduct both regional analysis throughout the nation and case studies focused on nine typical regions in order to identify regional patterns of industrial structure change and CO2 emissions. Results indicate that structural change in primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors was highly correlated, but structural change by industrial sector did not correspond well, with the stage of economic development. The disparity in regional industrial structure impacts regional CO2 emissions substantially. First, industrial structure changes involving a shift from agriculture, mining, and light manufacturing to resource-related heavy manufacturing in many regions led to a rapid increase in CO2 emissions at the national level. Second, production structure change, especially in construction and services sectors, is an important source of CO2 emission growth in regions. Some developed regions with vastly improved input efficiency in resource-related heavy manufacturing demonstrate the immense potential for reducing CO2 emissions in regions lagging in input efficiency. Third, regions with a more developed industrial structure avoided local CO2 emissions by importing carbon-intensive products while exporting less carbon-intensive but higher-value-added products in the machinery and equipment and service sectors. Several policy implications are also discussed based on the main findings of this study.