Multi-model integrated flood forecasting method based on propagation time clustering analysis

The invention discloses a multi-model integrated flood forecasting method based on propagation time clustering analysis and belongs to the technical field of hydrologic forecasting. The method includes adopting a derived dynamic time warp matching method for floor process similarity analysis; estimating flow propagation time of each station in the upstream and the downstream; decomposing a sample into a plurality of clusters by performing clustering analysis on the flow propagation time; respectively building an SVM regression model for each sub-flow sequence to simulate the flood forming process; combining the sub-models into a comprehensive model. Comparing a comprehensive forecasting result acquired by the method with a model forecasting result acquired by a single model under conventional conditions and on the basis of flow clustering, the comparison result shows that the comprehensive model is better in comprehensive performance.