Are coastal managers detecting the problem? Assessing stakeholder perception of climate vulnerability using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping

Abstract Critical barriers to adaptation to climate change include the timely detection and agreed definition of problems requiring adaptive action. In the context of local scale coastal management in north-western Europe, challenges to problem detection and identification are exacerbated by the diffuse nature of administrative, sectoral, and legal rights and other professional governance obligations. Yet, if adaptation is to progress in a manner that is both locally legitimate and in accord with national policies, climate signals must be detected and climate impact problems framed in similar ways by two key groups; local scale ‘bottom-up’ experts and decision makers, and national scale ‘top–down’ scientists and policy makers. With reference to case study sites in Ireland and Scotland, we employ participatory modelling with coastal stakeholders using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) to trial its potential in measuring and assessing stakeholder perceptions of climate vulnerability both individually and collectively. We found that FCM not only offers insight into the existing detection and framing of climate signals in coastal decision making but also provides a structured communication platform from which climate problems might be coherently integrated into future coastal management deliberations as the adaptation process matures.

[1]  Roger Few,et al.  Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change. , 2008, Journal of environmental management.

[2]  C. Folke,et al.  Adaptive Comanagement for Building Resilience in Social–Ecological Systems , 2004, Environmental management.

[3]  S. Moser,et al.  More than information: what coastal managers need to plan for climate change , 2008 .

[4]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , 2001 .

[5]  Sara S. Metcalf,et al.  Sharing the floodplain: Mediated modeling for environmental management , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[6]  Elisabeth M. Hamin,et al.  Climate change adaptation in coastal Australia: An audit of planning practice , 2013 .

[7]  Bart Kosko,et al.  Fuzzy Cognitive Maps , 1986, Int. J. Man Mach. Stud..

[8]  John Wagner,et al.  Who Knows? On the Importance of Identifying “Experts” When Researching Local Ecological Knowledge , 2003 .

[9]  S. Steele‐Dunne,et al.  Ireland in a warmer world; scientific predictions of the Irish climate in the twenty-first century , 2008 .

[10]  Jacqueline de Chazal,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability : Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2014 .

[11]  William C. Dennison,et al.  Environmental problem solving in coastal ecosystems: A paradigm shift to sustainability , 2008 .

[12]  Evelyn,et al.  Multi-Level Governance 8 Integrating Holism and Segmentalism : Overcoming Barriers to Adaptive Co-Management between Management Agencies and Multi-Sector Bodies , 2007 .

[13]  W. Ritchie.  The Post-Glacial Rise in Sea-Level and Coastal Changes in the Uists , 1966 .

[14]  R. Devoy,et al.  Coastal Vulnerability and the Implications of Sea-Level Rise for Ireland , 2008 .

[15]  Dan Clark,et al.  Modeling the integration of stakeholder knowledge in social–ecological decision-making: Benefits and limitations to knowledge diversity , 2012 .

[16]  Michael Elliott,et al.  Estuarine, coastal and marine ecosystem restoration: Confusing management and science – A revision of concepts , 2007 .

[17]  Lisen Schultz,et al.  Nurturing resilience in social-ecological systems : Lessons learned from bridging organizations , 2009 .

[18]  Larry B. Crowder,et al.  Essential ecological insights for marine ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning , 2008 .

[19]  J. Anderies,et al.  Governance and the Capacity to Manage Resilience in Regional Social-Ecological Systems , 2006 .

[20]  E. Bird.  Coastal Geomorphology: An Introduction , 2000 .

[21]  N. Brown,et al.  The Role of Informal Protected Areas in Maintaining Biodiversity in the Western Ghats of India , 2005 .

[22]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers. , 2007 .

[23]  Derek Armitage,et al.  Charting the New Territory of Adaptive Co-management: A Delphi Study , 2007 .

[24]  S. Schneider,et al.  Climate Change 2007 Synthesis report , 2008 .

[25]  U. Andersen,et al.  Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario , 2004 .

[26]  Carrie V. Kappel,et al.  Ecosystem Services as a Common Language for Coastal Ecosystem‐Based Management , 2010, Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology.

[27]  M. Elliott,et al.  Management of the marine environment: integrating ecosystem services and societal benefits with the DPSIR framework in a systems approach. , 2011, Marine pollution bulletin.

[28]  C. Pahl-Wostl,et al.  A conceptual framework for analysing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes , 2009 .

[29]  R. Kasperson,et al.  Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to practice: Pathways, players, and partnerships , 2007 .

[30]  J. Mckenna,et al.  Sacred cows in coastal management: the need for a ‘cheap and transitory’ model , 2006 .

[31]  John McKenna,et al.  Social justice in coastal erosion management: The temporal and spatial dimensions , 2008 .

[32]  François Bousquet,et al.  Modelling with stakeholders , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[33]  James D. Ford,et al.  A systematic review of observed climate change adaptation in developed nations , 2011 .

[34]  G. Hays,et al.  Climate change and marine plankton. , 2005, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[35]  C. Folke,et al.  Enhancing the Fit through Adaptive Co-management: Creating and Maintaining Bridging Functions for Matching Scales in the Kristianstads Vattenrike Biosphere Reserve, Sweden , 2007 .

[36]  A. Gagnon,et al.  Vulnerability and adaptation to extreme coastal flooding: An example from the south ford area, scottish outer hebrides , 2014 .

[37]  Fikret Berkes,et al.  Evolution of co-management: role of knowledge generation, bridging organizations and social learning. , 2009, Journal of environmental management.

[38]  Alexey A. Voinov,et al.  Effectiveness of a participatory modeling effort to identify and advance community water resource goals in St. Albans, Vermont , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[39]  Wei Zhang,et al.  Using fuzzy cognitive time maps for modeling and evaluating trust dynamics in the virtual enterprises , 2008, Expert Syst. Appl..

[40]  Sandhya Samarasinghe,et al.  A New Method for Identifying the Central Nodes in Fuzzy Cognitive Maps using Consensus Centrality Measure , 2011 .

[41]  S. Burch.  Transforming barriers into enablers of action on climate change: Insights from three municipal case studies in British Columbia, Canada , 2010 .

[42]  Ali Azadeh,et al.  Assessment and improvement of integrated HSE and macro-ergonomics factors by fuzzy cognitive maps: The case of a large gas refinery , 2013 .

[43]  Sophie A. Nicholson-Cole,et al.  Barriers perceived to engaging with climate change among the UK public and their policy implications , 2007 .

[44]  J. Dutoit.  The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , 2007 .

[45]  Fikret Berkes,et al.  Adaptive Co-Management: Collaboration, Learning, and Multi-Level Governance , 2014 .

[46]  C. O’Mahony,et al.  Preparedness of key coastal and marine sectors in Ireland to adapt to climate change , 2011 .

[47]  Rural Beach Management: A Good Practice Guide , 2000 .

[48]  G. Cundill,et al.  Foghorns to the Future: Using Knowledge and Transdisciplinarity to Navigate Complex Systems , 2005 .

[49]  C. O’Mahony,et al.  Coastal Climate Adaptation in Ireland: Assessing current conditions and enhancing the capacity for climate resilience in local coastal management , 2013 .

[50]  Simon Dietz,et al.  Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process , 2010 .

[51]  Kirsty J. Park,et al.  Restoration and management of machair grassland for the conservation of bumblebees , 2012, Journal of Insect Conservation.

[52]  W. Adger,et al.  Successful adaptation to climate change across scales , 2005 .

[53]  R. Ballinger,et al.  Implementing integrated coastal zone management in a national policy vacuum: local case studies from Ireland , 2010 .

[54]  Johan Hedrén,et al.  Institutional capacity-building for targeting sea-level rise in the climate adaptation of Swedish coastal zone management. Lessons from Coastby , 2011 .

[55]  Stefan Gray,et al.  Towards climate adaptation and coastal governance in Ireland: Integrated architecture for effective management? , 2011 .

[56]  Steven A. Gray,et al.  Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as Representations of Mental Models and Group Beliefs , 2014, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Applied Sciences and Engineering.

[57]  Susanne C Moser,et al.  A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[58]  E. Tompkins.  Planning for climate change in small islands: Insights from national hurricane preparedness in the Cayman Islands , 2005 .

[59]  Conor Murphy,et al.  CLIMATE CHANGE - Refining the Impacts for Ireland , 2013 .

[60]  Anne Leitch,et al.  Mental models: an interdisciplinary synthesis of theory and methods , 2011 .

[61]  E. Gaddis,et al.  Lessons for successful participatory watershed modeling: A perspective from modeling practitioners , 2008 .

[62]  J. Hay,et al.  Coastal systems and low-lying areas , 2007 .

[63]  Kyoung-Yun Kim,et al.  Systematic causal knowledge acquisition using FCM Constructor for product design decision support , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[64]  F. Skov,et al.  Linking thoughts to flows - Fuzzy cognitive mapping as tool for integrated landscape modeling , 2010 .

[65]  T. Carter,et al.  Europe adapts to climate change: comparing national adaptation strategies , 2010 .

[66]  Katharina Helming,et al.  Does research applying the DPSIR framework support decision making , 2012 .

[67]  Suraje Dessai,et al.  Robust adaptation to climate change , 2010 .

[68]  Timothy O'Riordan,et al.  Adapting governance for coastal change in Portugal , 2013 .

[69]  R. Axelrod.  Structure of decision : the cognitive maps of political elites , 2015 .

[70]  Uygar Özesmi,et al.  Ecological models based on people’s knowledge: a multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach , 2004 .

[71]  Grete K. Hovelsrud,et al.  Implementing adaptation to climate change at the local level , 2012 .

[72]  R. Costanza,et al.  Defining and classifying ecosystem services for decision making , 2009 .

[73]  Jos De Roo,et al.  Formalization of treatment guidelines using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and semantic web tools , 2012, J. Biomed. Informatics.

[74]  C. Folke,et al.  Trust-building, Knowledge Generation and Organizational Innovations: The Role of a Bridging Organization for Adaptive Comanagement of a Wetland Landscape around Kristianstad, Sweden , 2006 .

[75]  I. Bateman,et al.  Coastal and marine ecosystem services valuation for policy and management: Managed realignment case studies in England , 2011 .

[76]  N. Perrin,et al.  Climate policy processes, local institutions, and adaptation actions: mechanisms of translation and influence , 2012 .