Spanish energy roadmap to 2020: Socioeconomic implications of renewable targets.

The European Union has established challenging targets for the share of renewable energies to be achieved by 2020; for Spain, 20% of the final energy consumption must be from renewable sources at such time. The aim of this paper is the analysis of the consequences for the electricity sector (in terms of excess cost of electricity, investment requirements, land occupation, CO2 emissions and overcapacity of conventional power) of several possibilities to comply with the desired targets. Scenarios are created from different hypotheses for energy demand, biofuel share in final energy in transport, contribution of renewables for heating and cooling, renewable electricity generation (generation mix, deployment rate, learning curves, land availability) and conventional power generation (lifetime of current installations, committed deployment, fossil fuel costs and CO2 emissions cost). A key input in the estimations presented is the technical potential and the cost of electricity from renewable sources, which have been estimated in previous, detailed studies by the present authors using a methodology based on a GIS (Geographical Information System) and high resolution meteorological data. Depending on the scenario, the attainment of the targets will lead to an increase in the cost of electricity from 19% to 37% with respect to 2007.