Components of the profitability of technical currency trading

This paper investigates the sources of the profitability of 1024 technical models when trading in the German mark (euro)/U.S. dollar market. The main results are as follows. First, each of these models would have been profitable over the entire sample period. Second, this profitability is exclusively due to the exploitation of exchange rate trends. Third, these results do not change substantially when trading is examined within subperiods. Fourth, the 25 best performing models in each in-sample period examined were profitable also out of sample in most cases. Fifth, the profitability of technical currency trading has been declining since the late 1980s.

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