Generalized entropy plane based on large deviations theory for financial time series

Abstract Complexity-entropy causality plane analysis and large deviations spectrums theory are proposed to study time series. The entropy plane analysis depicts the complexity of a system in two-dimensional plane, while large deviations theory shows the spectral structure of time series in the way of multifractal. In this paper, we combine the characteristics of these two popular methods and propose a generalized entropy plane model based on the large deviation theory. The methodology is applied to both synthetic data and financial markets. We discuss the impact of the parameters on the results in detail. Besides, the modified model can distinguish different time series. Meanwhile, we compare our results with the original complexity-entropy causality plane and large deviations spectrums, and the consistency of these results is confirmed. The method can provide abundant dynamical properties of complex systems.

[1]  S M Pincus,et al.  Approximate entropy as a measure of system complexity. , 1991, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[2]  O. Rosso,et al.  Complexity–entropy analysis of daily stream flow time series in the continental United States , 2014, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.

[3]  J. A. Tenreiro Machado,et al.  Analysis of stock market indices through multidimensional scaling , 2011 .

[4]  A. Rényi On Measures of Entropy and Information , 1961 .

[5]  Paulo Gonçalves,et al.  Large deviations estimates for the multiscale analysis of heart rate variability , 2012 .

[6]  Haroldo V. Ribeiro,et al.  Complexity-entropy causality plane: a useful approach for distinguishing songs , 2011, ArXiv.

[7]  Monika Pinchas Convolutional Noise Analysis via Large Deviation Technique , 2015 .

[8]  Yi Yin,et al.  Weighted multiscale permutation entropy of financial time series , 2014 .

[9]  José António Tenreiro Machado,et al.  Fractional Order Generalized Information , 2014, Entropy.

[10]  R. Thuraisingham,et al.  On multiscale entropy analysis for physiological data , 2006 .

[11]  Ning-De Jin,et al.  Gas–liquid two-phase flow structure in the multi-scale weighted complexity entropy causality plane , 2016 .

[12]  C. Tsallis Possible generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics , 1988 .

[13]  Pengjian Shang,et al.  Complexity–entropy causality plane based on power spectral entropy for complex time series , 2018, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

[14]  Xiao Chen,et al.  A Complexity-Based Approach for the Detection of Weak Signals in Ocean Ambient Noise , 2016, Entropy.

[15]  M. Meyer,et al.  Self-affine fractal variability of human heartbeat interval dynamics in health and disease , 2003, European Journal of Applied Physiology.

[16]  J. Richman,et al.  Physiological time-series analysis using approximate entropy and sample entropy. , 2000, American journal of physiology. Heart and circulatory physiology.

[17]  Pengjian Shang,et al.  Transfer entropy between multivariate time series , 2017, Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul..

[18]  Olivier Faugeras,et al.  A large deviation principle for networks of rate neurons with correlated synaptic weights , 2013, BMC Neuroscience.

[19]  Alexander K. Hartmann,et al.  Large-deviation properties of resilience of power grids , 2014, 1411.5233.

[20]  Dingchang Zheng,et al.  Assessing the complexity of short-term heartbeat interval series by distribution entropy , 2014, Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing.

[21]  Amir Dembo,et al.  Large Deviations Techniques and Applications , 1998 .

[22]  Pengjian Shang,et al.  The multiscale large deviation spectrum based on higher moments for financial time series , 2018, Nonlinear Dynamics.

[23]  Yi Yin,et al.  Multifractal cross-correlation analysis of traffic time series based on large deviation estimates , 2015 .

[24]  B. Pompe,et al.  Permutation entropy: a natural complexity measure for time series. , 2002, Physical review letters.

[25]  Luciano Zunino,et al.  Characterizing time series via complexity-entropy curves. , 2017, Physical review. E.

[26]  Pengjian Shang,et al.  Weighted multifractal cross-correlation analysis based on Shannon entropy , 2015, Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation.

[27]  Pengjian Shang,et al.  A comparison study on stages of sleep: Quantifying multiscale complexity using higher moments on coarse-graining , 2017, Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul..

[28]  Pengjian Shang,et al.  Permutation complexity and dependence measures of time series , 2013 .

[29]  J. Barral,et al.  On the Estimation of the Large Deviations Spectrum , 2011 .

[30]  Madalena Costa,et al.  Multiscale entropy analysis of complex physiologic time series. , 2002, Physical review letters.

[31]  Sílvio M. Duarte Queirós,et al.  A large deviation analysis on the near-equivalence between external and internal reservoirs , 2016 .

[32]  Madalena Costa,et al.  Multiscale entropy analysis of biological signals. , 2005, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[33]  Pengjian Shang,et al.  Large deviations estimates for the multiscale analysis of traffic speed time series , 2015, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.