Robustness of electricity systems with nearly 100% share of renewables: a worst-case study

Several research studies have shown that future sustainable electricity systems, mostly based on renewable generation and storage, are feasible with today’s technologies and costs. However, recent episodes of extreme weather conditions, probably associated with climate change, cast shades of doubt on whether the resulting generation portfolios are sufficiently robust to assure, at all times, a suitable balance between generation and demand, when adverse conditions are faced. To address this issue, this work elaborates a methodology intended to determine a sustainable electricity system that can endure extreme weather conditions, which are likely to occur. First, using hourly production and demand data from the last decade, along with estimates of new uses of electricity, a worstcase scenario is constructed, including the storage capacity and additional photovoltaic power which are needed to serve the demand on an hourly basis. Next, several key parameters which may have a significant influence on the LCOE are considered, and a sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine their real impact, significance and potential trends. The proposed methodology is then applied to the Spanish system. The results show that, under the hypotheses and conditions considered in this paper, it is possible to design a decarbonized electricity system that, taking advantage of existing sustainable assets, satisfies the long-term needs by providing a reliable supply at an average cost significantly lower than current market prices. Total: 225 words Highlights: • A methodology to assess the robustness of renewable electrical systems is developed. • The LCOE sensitivity to several key parameters is analyzed. • The required storage capacity is modest when at least 40% of hydro is dispatchable. • The worst-case LCOE for the Spanish system is lower than current wholesale prices. • Expected PV and storage cost reductions will further reduce the LCOE obtained

[1]  Neven Duić,et al.  A 100% renewable energy system in the year 2050: The case of Macedonia , 2012 .

[2]  Maureen Hand,et al.  Envisioning a renewable electricity future for the United States , 2014 .

[3]  D. Iribarren,et al.  Prospective Analysis of Life-Cycle Indicators through Endogenous Integration into a National Power Generation Model , 2016 .

[4]  Goran Krajačić,et al.  Planning for a 100% independent energy system based on smart energy storage for integration of renewables and CO2 emissions reduction , 2011 .

[5]  M. Carvalhob,et al.  Energy planning tool for island energy systems – The case of the Island of Mljet 5 , 2009 .

[6]  M. Lenzen,et al.  The impact of battery energy storage for renewable energy power grids in Australia , 2019, Energy.

[7]  Rhythm Singh,et al.  Energy sufficiency aspirations of India and the role of renewable resources: Scenarios for future , 2018 .

[8]  Richard Wood,et al.  A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change. , 2015, Environmental science & technology.

[9]  Rolando A. Rodriguez,et al.  The potential for arbitrage of wind and solar surplus power in Denmark , 2014 .

[10]  S. Bhattacharyya,et al.  Integration of Wind Power into the British System in 2020 , 2011 .

[11]  P. Sands.  The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change , 1992 .

[12]  Goran Krajačić,et al.  H2RES, Energy planning tool for island energy systems – The case of the Island of Mljet , 2009 .

[13]  E. Hertwich,et al.  Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe , 2016 .

[14]  Paula Varandas Ferreira,et al.  Renewable energy scenarios in the Portuguese electricity system , 2014 .

[15]  D. Iribarren,et al.  Prospective analysis of energy security: A practical life-cycle approach focused on renewable power generation and oriented towards policy-makers , 2017 .

[16]  A. Gómez-Expósito,et al.  Self-sufficient renewable energy supply in urban areas: Application to the city of Seville , 2019, Sustainable Cities and Society.

[17]  Samiha Tahseen,et al.  Deploying storage assets to facilitate variable renewable energy integration: The impacts of grid flexibility, renewable penetration, and market structure , 2018 .

[18]  Perry Sadorsky,et al.  Some future scenarios for renewable energy , 2011 .

[19]  David Canca,et al.  Impact of battery technological progress on electricity arbitrage: An application to the Iberian market , 2020 .

[20]  Subhash Kumar.  Assessment of renewables for energy security and carbon mitigation in Southeast Asia: The case of Indonesia and Thailand , 2016 .

[21]  Hannele Holttinen,et al.  Path toward 100% renewable energy future and feasibility of power-to-gas technology in Nordic countries , 2017 .

[22]  Ignacio Mauleón,et al.  Photovoltaic investment roadmaps and sustainable development , 2017 .

[23]  Martin Greiner,et al.  Cost optimal scenarios of a future highly renewable European electricity system: Exploring the influence of weather data, cost parameters and policy constraints , 2018, Energy.

[24]  Maria Madalena Teixeira de Araújo,et al.  Scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector based on a multi-criteria assessment , 2017 .

[25]  Alexandre Szklo,et al.  Least-cost adaptation options for global climate change impacts on the Brazilian electric power system , 2010 .

[26]  Antonio Gómez Expósito,et al.  On the potential contribution of rooftop PV to a sustainable electricity mix: the case of Spain , 2020, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[27]  Pierluigi Siano,et al.  Flexibility in future power systems with high renewable penetration: A review , 2016 .

[28]  Nate Blair,et al.  Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) , 2011 .

[29]  Adisa Azapagic,et al.  Life cycle sustainability assessment of UK electricity scenarios to 2070 , 2014 .

[30]  Ian G. Cronshaw,et al.  Sector coupling: Supporting decarbonisation of the global energy system , 2020 .

[31]  H. Madsen,et al.  Renewable Energy Communities: Optimal sizing and distribution grid impact of photo-voltaics and battery storage , 2021 .

[32]  Gjalt Huppes,et al.  Life cycle assessment: past, present, and future. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[33]  Iain MacGill,et al.  Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian National Electricity Market , 2012 .

[34]  M. Barrett,et al.  Assessment of future renewable energy scenarios in South Korea based on costs, emissions and weather-driven hourly simulation , 2019 .

[35]  D. Iribarren,et al.  Prospective energy security scenarios in Spain: The future role of renewable power generation technologies and climate change implications , 2018, Renewable Energy.

[36]  Giorgio Baldinelli,et al.  Life cycle assessment of electricity production from renewable energies: Review and results harmonization , 2015 .