Decision analysis of California electrical capacity expansion. Final report

The analysis focuses on short- and long-term capacity expansions for California electrical-generating facilities. Important issues affecting the capacity expansion decision were analyzed, using quantitative models of electrical demand and supply. The models were designed primarily to identify which factors are most important when making the capacity expansion decision. The models, first constructed at a relatively simplistic level, are used to perform sensitivity analysis that indicates which variables have the greatest influence on the expansion decision. The models are then refined so that they reflect more closely the variables that the sensitivity analysis revealed were most critical to the capacity decision. A simplified decision tree that represents the strategic capacity expansion choice is shown. (MCW)