Thou shalt drive electric and hybrid vehicles: Scenario analysis on energy saving and emission mitigation for road transportation sector in China

Road transport today is responsible for a significant and growing share of anthropogenic emissions and energy consumption. This paper attempts to address the possible policy measures to reduce the energy consumption and mitigate the harmful emissions, especially greenhouse gas (GHG) from China's road transportation sector. Five scenarios, which assess electric or/and hybrid vehicles, are designed and examined to estimate the potentials for reducing consumption and emissions. It is concluded that comprehensive and appropriate strategies be promoted to minimize the adverse impacts of China's road vehicles on energy demand and environmental sustainability. For future policy implementation, it is appropriate to promote both high-efficient pure electric and hybrid vehicles simultaneously and improve shares of both types by a wide margin. To be more specific, significant energy saving and emissions reduction can be achieved by promoting electric vehicles in some subsectors (such as Passenger vehicle (PV), Light truck (LT), Bus and Motorcycle (MC)), and by promoting hybrid vehicles in other subsector (Heavy truck (HT)). Our results can provide better insights for both policy makers and practitioners in the field.