확률론적 내구하중분포 예측 기술

Numerical simulation is now routinely used to predict the behavior and response of complex systems. But uncertainties enter into a numerical simulation from a variety of source, such as variability in input parameters due to inherent scatter in data, lack of or insufficient input information, modeling assumptions, and human error. In durability problems there will be a number of input uncertainties associated with the model, such as material properties, loadings, geometry, boundary conditions, etc. This research proposes a probabilistic prediction process of durability load distribution. In early design stage, virtual proving ground simulation is essential to estimate vehicle durability using vehicle, tire and road model. Previous researches have used deterministic approach to predict various performances using constant mean factors, and considered uncertainties through safety factor. This paper includes process of durability load prediction and considering uncertainties to consider diversity of region and specification, tuning properties for other performance and test conditions. In addition process integration is developed to execute probabilistic analysis efficiently.