Naval aviation squadron risk analysis predictive Bayesian Network Modeling using Maintenance Climate Assessment Survey results

NAVAL AVIATION SQUADRON RISK ANALYSIS PREDICTIVE BAYESIAN NETWORK MODELING USING MAINTENANCE CLIMATE ASSESSMENT SURVEY RESULTS Harry Michael Robinson Old Dominion University, 2014 Director: Dr. John A. Sokolowski Associated risks in flying have resulted in injury or death to aircrew and passengers, and damage or destruction o f the aircraft and its surroundings. Although the Naval Aviation's flight mishap rate declined over the past 60 years, the proportion of human error causal factors has stayed relatively constant at about 80%. Efforts to reduce human errors have focused attention on understanding the aircrew and maintenance actions occurring in complex systems. One such tool has been the Naval Aviation squadrons’ regular participation in survey questionnaires deigned to measure respondent ratings related to personal judgments or perceptions o f organizational climate for meeting the extent to which a particular squadron achieved the High Reliability Organization (HRO) criteria of achieving safe and reliable operations and maintenance practices while working in hazardous environments. Specifically, the Maintenance Climate Assessment Survey (MCAS) is completed by squadron maintainers to enable leadership to assess their unit’s aggregated responses against those from other squadrons. Bayesian Network Modeling and Simulation provides a potential methodology to represent the relationships o f MCAS results and mishap occurrences that can be used to derive and calculate probabilities o f incurring a future mishap. Model development and simulation analysis was conducted to research a causal relationship through quantitative analysis o f conditional probabilities based upon observed evidence o f previously occurred mishaps. This application would enable Navy and Marine Corps aviation squadron leadership to identify organizational safety risks, apply focused proactive measures to mitigate related hazards characterized by the MCAS results, and reduce organizational susceptibility to future aircraft mishaps. This dissertation is dedicated to my family, especially Anne and Andrew, for their support and understanding. I am grateful to my father, Captain “Fast Eddie” Robinson, U.S. Naval Reserve, who introduced me to Naval Aviation and my mother, Deborah Lowenthal Robinson who pinned on my wings o f gold. The research conducted and detailed here within is for the men and women who ardently serve in the United States Navy and Marine Corps. Their determination and spirit is the bedrock of Naval Aviation which enables the capability to