A Pragmatist Theory of Evidence

Two approaches to evidential reasoning compete in the biomedical and social sciences: the experimental and the pragmatist. Whereas experimentalism has received considerable philosophical analysis and support since the times of Bacon and Mill (and continues to enjoy attention and support in very recent work on causation and evidence), pragmatism about evidence has been neither articulated nor defended. The overall aim is to fill this gap and develop a theory that articulates the latter. The main ideas of the theory will be illustrated and supported by a case study on the smoking/lung cancer controversy in the 1950s.

[1]  R. Lucas Econometric policy evaluation: A critique , 1976 .

[2]  David V. Pritchett Econometric policy evaluation: A critique , 1976 .

[3]  Counterfactuals, Thought Experiments, and Singular Causal Analysis in History , 2009, Philosophy of Science.

[4]  A. L. Caze,et al.  The role of basic science in evidence-based medicine , 2011 .

[5]  R. Doll Bronchial Carcinoma: Incidence and Aetiology.—I* , 1953, Medical world.

[6]  J. Reiss Struggling Over the Soul of Economics: Objectivity Versus Expertise , 2014 .

[7]  K. Popper,et al.  Conjectures and Refutations , 1963 .

[8]  K. Hoover Causality in Macroeconomics , 2001 .

[9]  J. Reiss Causation in the sciences: an inferentialist account. , 2012, Studies in history and philosophy of biological and biomedical sciences.

[10]  Makoto Itoh,et al.  Theory of Evidence , 1998 .

[11]  N. Rescher A Theory of Evidence , 1958, Philosophy of Science.

[12]  J. Hardwig The Role of Trust in Knowledge , 1991 .

[13]  A. Zuckerman,et al.  IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans , 1995, IARC monographs on the evaluation of carcinogenic risks to humans.

[14]  John D. Norton,et al.  Challenges to Bayesian Confirmation Theory , 2011 .

[15]  T. G. Language, Truth and Logic , 1936, Nature.

[16]  A. Relman,et al.  The Role of Trust in Knowledge , 2007 .

[17]  Edward H. Madden,et al.  Problems of Knowledge , 1985 .

[18]  J. Ioannidis Why Most Published Research Findings Are False , 2005, PLoS medicine.

[19]  E. C. Hammond,et al.  Smoking and lung cancer: recent evidence and a discussion of some questions. , 1959, Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

[20]  Elliott Sober,et al.  Venetian Sea Levels, British Bread Prices, and the Principle of the Common Cause , 2001, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

[21]  Michael Williams,et al.  Problems of knowledge , 2001 .

[22]  A. Fine,et al.  The Dappled World , 2000 .

[23]  O W Anderson,et al.  Cancer and smoking , 1960, Nature.

[24]  Nancy Cartwright,et al.  Are RCTs the Gold Standard? , 2007 .

[25]  N. Cartwright The Dappled World , 1999 .

[26]  J. Woodward Making Things Happen: A Theory of Causal Explanation , 2003 .

[27]  P. Stanford Exceeding Our Grasp: Science, History, and the Problem of Unconceived Alternatives , 2006 .

[28]  W. Salmon Confirmation and relevance , 1975 .

[29]  J. Mackie,et al.  The cement of the universe : a study of causation , 1977 .

[30]  Heike Freud,et al.  Error And The Growth Of Experimental Knowledge , 2016 .

[31]  Julian Reiss,et al.  Causal Instrumental Variables and Interventions , 2005, Philosophy of Science.

[32]  D. Bleyl,et al.  IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans. Overall Evaluations of Carcinogenicity: An Updating of IARC Monographs vol. 1 to 42. Supplement 7. 440 Seiten. International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon 1987. Preis: 65, – s.Fr , 1989 .

[33]  Wendy S. Parker,et al.  A Material Theory of Induction , 2003 .

[34]  A. J. Ayer,et al.  Language, Truth, and Logic , 1936 .

[35]  R. Doll Bronchial Carcinoma: Incidence and Aetiology.—II* , 1953 .

[36]  C. Hempel Philosophy of Natural Science , 1966 .

[37]  J. Norton A Material Theory of Induction* , 2003, Philosophy of Science.

[38]  M. Parascandola,et al.  Two approaches to etiology: the debate over smoking and lung cancer in the 1950s. , 2004, Endeavour.

[39]  A. Goldman Discrimination and Perceptual Knowledge , 1976 .

[40]  Julian Reiss,et al.  Error in economics: towards a more evidence-based methodology [rejoinder] , 2007 .

[41]  James J. Heckman,et al.  Randomization as an Instrumental Variable , 1995 .

[42]  Christopher J. Portier,et al.  IARC MONOGRAPHS ON THE EVALUATION OF CARCINOGENIC RISKS TO HUMANS PReAMBLe , 2011 .

[43]  J. Vandenbroucke Those who were wrong. , 1989, American journal of epidemiology.

[44]  A G GILLIAM,et al.  Trends of mortality attributed to carcinoma of the lung: Possible effects of faulty certification of deaths to other respiratory diseases , 1955, Cancer.

[45]  Kirstin Borgerson,et al.  Valuing Evidence: Bias and the Evidence Hierarchy of Evidence-Based Medicine , 2009, Perspectives in biology and medicine.

[46]  RONALD A. FISHER,et al.  Cancer and Smoking , 1958, Nature.

[47]  Jon Williamson,et al.  Interpreting Causality in the Health Sciences , 2007 .

[48]  H. Eysenck,et al.  Smoking and Personality* , 1960, British medical journal.

[49]  K. Hoover,et al.  Nonstationary Time Series, Cointegration, and the Principle of the Common Cause , 2003, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

[50]  J. Biddle Lessons from the Vioxx Debacle: What the Privatization of Science Can Teach Us About Social Epistemology , 2007 .

[51]  J. Pearl Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference , 2000 .

[52]  I. Rumfitt,et al.  Making it Explicit: Reasoning, Representing, and Discursive Commitment. , 1997 .

[53]  Tom Burr,et al.  Causation, Prediction, and Search , 2003, Technometrics.