Short-term load forecasting at Hydro-Quebec TransEnergie

This paper first outlines developments over the past 25 years in hourly modeling of native load supplied by Hydro-Quebec. A brief description is then given of the forecasting models used, their performance and derived applications. Beyond hourly forecasting of Quebec demand, these models are used to compute the hourly Np factor, week-ahead probabilistic forecasts, and statistics on normalized energy consumption and peak load. The potential over those 25 years for using analytical model developments is shown. Frequent tuning of model parameters and adjustment to new load contexts ensure that forecasts and derived products are of high quality