Dynamic Modelling of Nonresponse in Business Surveys

It is well-known that nonresponse affects the results of surveys and can even cause bias due to selectivities if it cannot be regarded as missing at random. In contrast to household surveys, response behaviour in business surveys has been examined rarely in the literature. This paper is one of the first which analyses a large business survey on micro data level for unit nonresponse. The data base is the Ifo Business Tendency Survey, which was established in 1949 and has more than 5,000 responding firms each month. The panel structure allows to use statistical modelling including time-varying effects to check for the existence of a panel fatigue. The results show that there are huge differences in business characteristics such as size or sub-sector and that nonresponse is more frequent in economically good times.

[1]  Marc Gronwald,et al.  Jumps in Oil Prices- Evidence and Implications , 2009 .

[2]  Jörg-Peter Schräpler,et al.  Respondent Behavior in Panel Studies , 2004 .

[3]  Heather Laurie,et al.  Strategies for reducing nonresponse in a longitudinal panel survey , 1999 .

[4]  I. Plewis,et al.  Modelling non‐response in the National Child Development Study , 2006 .

[5]  Ulrike Jäger,et al.  Working or stay-at-home mum? The influence of family benefits and religiosity , 2010 .

[6]  P. J. Huber.  The behavior of maximum likelihood estimates under nonstandard conditions , 1967 .

[7]  Stefan Arent,et al.  A Fragile Pillar: Statutory Pensions and the Risk of Old-Age Poverty in Germany , 2010 .

[8]  Thomas Lange,et al.  Return migration of foreign students and the choice of non-resident tuition fees , 2009 .

[9]  Klaus Wohlrabe,et al.  European Data Watch: Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access , 2008 .

[10]  William D. Kalsbeek,et al.  Predictors of Nonresponse in a Longitudinal Survey of Adolescents , 2001 .

[11]  Volker Meier,et al.  Education, Unemployment and Migration , 2007, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[12]  Sultan Orazbayev,et al.  An Institutional Risk Analysis of the Kazakh Economy , 2009 .

[13]  Wido Geis,et al.  High Unemployment in Germany: Why do Foreigners Suffer Most? , 2010 .

[14]  Donald Tomaskovic-Devey,et al.  Organizational Survey Nonresponse , 1994 .

[15]  Sabrina Dorn.  Monte-Carlo Simulations Revised: A Reply to Arqus , 2009 .

[16]  Thomas Stratmann,et al.  The Effect of Abortion Liberalization on Sexual Behavior: International Evidence , 2009 .

[17]  Klaus Wohlrabe,et al.  Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur , 2006 .

[18]  Jarko Fidrmuc,et al.  Default Rates in the Loan Market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia , 2009 .

[19]  S. Zeger,et al.  Marginal Regression Models for Clustered Ordinal Measurements , 1996 .

[20]  Steffen R. Henzel,et al.  The Virtues of VAR Forecast Pooling - A DSGE Model Based Monte Carlo Study , 2009 .

[21]  S. Zeger,et al.  Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models , 1986 .

[22]  Alexander Ebertz.  The Determinants of Joint Residential and Job Location Choices: A Mixed Logit Approach , 2009 .

[23]  Hendrik Hakenes,et al.  The Politician and His Banker , 2008 .

[24]  Christopher Zorn.  Generalized Estimating Equation Models for Correlated Data: A Review with Applications , 2001 .

[25]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  Varying‐Coefficient Models , 1993 .

[26]  Thomas Strobel,et al.  Unraveling the Origins of EU Countries Productivity Growth - Evidence on R&D and Competition from Cross-Country Industry Analysis , 2010 .

[27]  Guido Schwerdt,et al.  Labor quality growth in Germany , 2010 .

[28]  Gabriela Schütz,et al.  Does the Quality of Pre-primary Education Pay Off in Secondary School? An International Comparison Using PISA 2003 , 2009 .

[29]  Christian Seiler,et al.  Prediction Qualities of the Ifo Indicators on a Temporal Disaggregated German GDP , 2009 .

[30]  Donald Tomaskovic-Devey,et al.  Item Nonresponse in Organizational Surveys , 1995 .

[31]  Thomas Strobel,et al.  The Economic Impact of Capital-Skill Complementarities in German and US Industries Productivity Growth and the New Economy , 2010 .

[32]  R. W. Wedderburn.  Quasi-likelihood functions, generalized linear models, and the Gauss-Newton method , 1974 .

[33]  Michael Fritsch,et al.  The Phantom of the Opera: Cultural Amenities, Human Capital, and Regional Economic Growth , 2011, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[34]  Susanne Kohaut,et al.  Why don’t they answer? Unit non-response in the IAB establishment panel , 2009 .

[35]  Anja Hönig.  The New EBDC Dataset: An Innovative Combination of Survey and Financial Statement Data , 2009 .

[36]  Christina Ziegler.  Testing Predicitive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators for the Euro Area , 2009 .

[37]  Natalia Podlich,et al.  The Methodology of Stress Tests for the Kazakh Banking System , 2010 .

[38]  S. Wood.  Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R , 2006 .

[39]  Sultan Orazbayev,et al.  Estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the Kazakh economy , 2009 .

[40]  Diane K. Willimack,et al.  A hybrid response process model for business surveys , 2010 .

[41]  G. Tutz,et al.  Flexible modelling of discrete failure time including time‐varying smooth effects , 2004, Statistics in medicine.

[42]  Ludger Wössmann,et al.  Frühkindliche Bildung und spätere kognitive und nichtkognitive Fähigkeiten: deutsche und internationale Evidenz , 2010 .

[43]  E. D. de Leeuw,et al.  Trends in household survey nonresponse: a longitudinal and international comparison , 2002 .

[44]  Anna Montén,et al.  Determinants of efficiency in child care provision , 2011 .

[45]  David G Steel,et al.  Making unit-level inferences from aggregate data , 1996 .

[46]  Thiess Büttner,et al.  Spatial Implications of Minimum Wages , 2009 .

[47]  Christian Seiler,et al.  Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest , 2009 .

[48]  Wido Geis.  Does Educational Choice Erode the Immigration Surplus , 2009 .

[49]  John Brehm,et al.  STUBBING OUR TOES FOR A FOOT IN THE DOOR? PRIOR CONTACT, INCENTIVES AND SURVEY RESPONSE , 1994 .

[50]  Georg Goldrian.  Handbook of Survey-Based Business Cycle Analysis , 2007 .