Primary Emissions of Submicron and Carbonaceous Particles in Europe and the Potential for their Control

The interest in submicron and specifically carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere has risen recently, largely because of their potential role as climate forcing agents. Black carbon (BC) particles absorb solar radiation and are suspected to be a significant factor contributing to climate warming. Particulate organic carbon (OC), in turn, acts as a cooling substance. In principle, all of the atmospheric BC and a large part of the OC are emitted from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. To model the climatic effects of carbonaceous aerosols it is crucial to provide robust estimates of their emission strengths. Recent measurements of atmospheric optical depth suggest that earlier BC emission inventories may lead to over-estimations of atmospheric BC over Europe. This paper describes estimates of emissions of primary submicron particles, BC and OC in Europe, applying an extended PM-module of the RAINS model. The European emissions in 2000 are estimated at 2.8, 0.67 and 0.99 Tg for submicron, BC and OC, respectively. The main sources are exhaust emissions from traffic and residential combustion of solid fuels, which together amount to 64 percent of the submicron emissions, 85 percent of the total BC and 81 percent of the total OC. By 2010 the emissions of all three pollutants are projected to decline by about 20 percent, largely due to implementation of the 'EURO-standards' for mobile sources and fuel switching in the residential sector.

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