Evidential Reasoning Based Hierarchical Analysis for Design Selection of Ship Retro-Fit Options

This paper reports the application of the evidential reasoning based hierarchical evaluation process to the design selection of retro-fit options for a particular ship. This selection problem is initially modelled by means of techno-economic analysis and may be viewed as a multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problem with a hierarchical structure of attributes which may be measured for each option using numerical values or subjective judgments with uncertainty. The evaluation model is discussed at first in this paper. Techniques for articulating original evaluation data are also explored. An evidential reasoning approach is then summarized which has recently been developed on the basis of the Dempster-Shafer theory. A real world design selection problem involving the retro-fitting of a typical short sea ferry is then examined in detail using the approach.