Extreme Ice Properties

An extreme‐value analysis is carried out for ice properties in the Great Belt in Denmark. The Great Belt is an 18‐km‐wide body of water that connects the Baltic Sea with Kattegat and the North Sea. It divides the country of Denmark into halves of nearly equal population. The design of a bridge and tunnel system across the Great Belt called for knowledge of extreme ice properties, because dynamic ice loading governs part of the design. Because of the extremely low exceedance probability of 2×10-5 per year accepted for ice loading, and because of the very limited amount of data available concerning ice at the location of interest, the analysis had to depend on air‐temperature records. Statistical correlation between strength and thickness of the ice was handled effectively by splitting their product in temperature dependent and independent parts and joining distributions for these by simple integration. The effect of a snow cover on the ice was also analyzed.