Dynamic production system diagnosis and prognosis using model-based data-driven method

A data-driven stochastic manufacturing system model is proposed.Real-time system performance identification method is developed.Prediction method for future potential system performance is developed. Advanced manufacturing systems are becoming increasingly complex, subjecting to constant changes driven by fluctuating market demands, new technology insertion, as well as random disruption events. While information about production processes has been becoming increasingly transparent, detailed, and real-time, the utilization of this information for real-time manufacturing analysis and decision-making has been lagging behind largely due to the limitation of the traditional methodologies for production system analysis, and a lack of real-time manufacturing processes modeling approach and real-time performance identification method. In this paper, a novel data-driven stochastic manufacturing system model is proposed to describe production dynamics and a systematic method is developed to identify the causes of permanent production loss in both deterministic and stochastic scenarios. The proposed methods integrate available sensor data with the knowledge of production system physical properties. Such methods can be transferred to a computer for system self-diagnosis/prognosis to provide users with deeper understanding of the underlying relationships between system status and performance, and to facilitate real-time production control and decision making. This effort is a step forward to smart manufacturing for system real-time performance identification in achieving improved system responsiveness and efficiency.