论文信息 - Uncertainty in risk assessment: A probabilist's manifesto

Uncertainty in risk assessment: A probabilist's manifesto

Abstract Principles for using expert opinion in science are formulated. A short discussion with reference to existing practice is given. A method for forming weighted combinations of probabilistic expert opinion is sketched and one application is indicated. The method can be evaluated by treating the decision maker as ‘virtual expert’ and comparing his ‘virtual weight’ with the weights assigned to the experts.

Roger M. Cooke

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