A Nonparametric Approach to Derivative Asset Pricing

We utilize the method of Bertholon, Monfort and Pegoraro (2006) for pricing European call options based on nonparametric estimation of returns. Densities are estimated using kernel estimation on random samples of a Laplace and mixture of normal distributions. Additionally, an exponential-affine form of the stochastic discount factor allows derivation of closed-form solutions for option prices. Results of the closed form calculations are compared with those calculated using the nonparametric approach. Both are compared to the Black-Scholes formula. Using the Laplace and mixed Gaussian distribution, the nonparametric estimation shows evidence of mispricing by the Black-Scholes model. This technique requires no assumption regarding the form of return distributions. JEL Classifications: C1, C5, G1.

[1]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Theory of Rational Option Pricing , 2015, World Scientific Reference on Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance.

[2]  Alain Monfort,et al.  Econometric specification of stochastic discount factor models , 2007 .

[3]  C. Gourierouxa,et al.  Econometric specification of stochastic discount factor models , 2006 .

[4]  C. Gouriéroux,et al.  Pricing with Splines , 2006 .

[5]  T. Alderweireld,et al.  A Theory for the Term Structure of Interest Rates , 2004, cond-mat/0405293.

[6]  R. Adler,et al.  A practical guide to heavy tails: statistical techniques and applications , 1998 .

[7]  David S. Bates Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options , 1998 .

[8]  R. Baillie,et al.  The Message in Daily Exchange Rates , 1989 .

[9]  James Stephen Marron,et al.  Canonical kernels for density estimation , 1988 .

[10]  Alan L. Tucker,et al.  The Probability Distribution of Foreign Exchange Price Changes: Tests of Candidate Processes , 1988 .

[11]  T. Bollerslev,et al.  A CONDITIONALLY HETEROSKEDASTIC TIME SERIES MODEL FOR SPECULATIVE PRICES AND RATES OF RETURN , 1987 .

[12]  Alan G. White,et al.  The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities , 1987 .

[13]  Stanley J. Kon Models of Stock Returns—A Comparison , 1984 .

[14]  B. Silverman,et al.  Using Kernel Density Estimates to Investigate Multimodality , 1981 .

[15]  S. Ross,et al.  The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes , 1976 .

[16]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous , 1976 .