Future Challenges in Evacuation Modelling

Evacuation is a common strategy for preserving life safety. For this reason, there is a need for reliable and accurate predictions relating to this process. However, evacuation represents a unique, complex, and uncertain phenomenon. As a physical process, it involves the movement of people from their points of origin towards a destination point, under variable environmental conditions. As a behavioural process, it involves human characteristics, decisions, and actions. Therefore, it is evident that in most of cases, there is not a simple solution to solve the problem at hand. Over the last few decades, the evacuation process has begun to be analysed using computer modelling and simulation. To date (2014), there exist over 40 evacuation computer models. These facilitate analysis of the potential outcomes of an evacuation, during hypothetical emergencies. However, the application and credibility of such tools is questionable. The models’ capabilities, scrutiny, and validation have been the focus themes for the last few years. In addition, there exists a demand to extend the use of these models to the simulation of new scenarios and applications. Evacuation modelling will remain in use, and the evacuation models of the future will need to be adapted to meet new requirements. New processes will have to be simulated using new modelling approaches, while the need for empirical data and validation methods will remain the key issues for the evacuation modelling community. Although the future of evacuation modelling in the long-term is uncertain, it is possible to look at the current requirements, and thus, highlight future challenges in a short-term sense. This chapter discusses some of the future challenges in evacuation modelling. The chapter is divided into three sections. The first section addresses the problem of new scenarios, and highlights some factors for future model developments. The second addresses the problem of using deterministic and/or stochastic approaches in evacuation modelling. The third section proposes, and discusses, the use of evacuation models for supporting timely decisions in real-time.

[1]  Richard W. Bukowski,et al.  Fire Safety of Passenger Trains, Phase II: Application of Fire Hazard Analysis Techniques , 2001 .

[2]  E. W. Marchant,et al.  Simulex; Developing New Computer Modelling Techniques For Evaluation , 1994 .

[3]  Daniel Alvear,et al.  An Evacuation Model for High Speed Trains , 2011 .

[4]  Benigno E. Aguirre,et al.  A Critical Review Of Emergency Evacuation Simulation Models , 2004 .

[5]  Edwin R. Galea,et al.  Advanced occupant behavioural features of the building - Exodus evacuation model , 1997 .

[6]  Anne Dederichs,et al.  Evacuation of Children: Movement on Stairs and on Horizontal Plane , 2012 .

[7]  C. W. Gardiner,et al.  Handbook of stochastic methods - for physics, chemistry and the natural sciences, Second Edition , 1986, Springer series in synergetics.

[8]  Harald Niederreiter,et al.  Random number generation and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods , 1992, CBMS-NSF regional conference series in applied mathematics.

[9]  J. L. Berrou,et al.  Calibration and validation of the Legion simulation model using empirical data , 2007 .

[10]  Keith M. Christensen,et al.  Agent-Based Emergency Evacuation Simulation with Individuals with Disabilities in the Population , 2008, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[11]  Daniel Alvear,et al.  A real-time stochastic evacuation model for road tunnels , 2013 .

[12]  S. Gwynne,et al.  What a User Should Know When Selecting an Evacuation Model. | NIST , 2005 .

[13]  Edwin R. Galea,et al.  Analysing the Evacuation Procedures Employed on a Thames Passenger Boat Using the maritimeEXODUS Evacuation Model , 2003 .

[14]  Edwin R. Galea,et al.  A review of the methodologies used in the computer simulation of evacuation from the built environment , 1999 .

[15]  Enrico Ronchi,et al.  Evacuation models of the future: Insights from an online survey on user’s experiences and needs , 2011 .

[16]  Eric W. Marchant,et al.  Testing and application of the computer model ‘SIMULEX’ , 1995 .

[17]  Enrico Ronchi,et al.  The evaluation of different evacuation models for assessing road tunnel safety analysis , 2012 .

[18]  Daniel Alvear,et al.  A Stochastic Approach for Simulating Human Behaviour During Evacuation Process in Passenger Trains , 2012 .

[19]  Athanasios Papoulis,et al.  Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Processes , 1965 .

[20]  Peter Vortisch,et al.  Microscopic Traffic Flow Simulator VISSIM , 2010 .

[21]  Daniel Nilsson,et al.  The Flow Rate of People during Train Evacuation in Rail Tunnels: Effects of Different Train Exit Configurations , 2014 .

[22]  Håkan Frantzich.  Utrymning av tunnelbanetåg. Experimentell utvärdering av möjligheten att utrymma i spårtunnel , 2000 .

[23]  Daniel Alvear,et al.  Decision support system for emergency management: Road tunnels , 2013 .

[24]  Edwin R. Galea,et al.  Experimental and survey studies on the effectiveness of dynamic signage systems , 2014 .

[25]  G. W. H. Silcock,et al.  Toward the Characterization of Building Occupancies for Fire Safety Engineering: Capabilities of Disabled People Moving Horizontally and on an Incline , 1999 .

[26]  Bernard Levin,et al.  EXITT- A Simulation Model Of Occupant Decisions And Actions In Residential Fires , 1989 .

[27]  Richard W. Bukowski,et al.  Sensitivity Examination of the airEXODUS1 Aircraft Evacuation Simulation Model , 1999 .

[28]  Edwin R. Galea,et al.  Estimating the flow rate capacity of an overturned rail carriage end exit in the presence of smoke , 2000 .

[29]  Ling Li,et al.  DSS development and applications in China , 2007, Decis. Support Syst..

[30]  Simon French,et al.  Design and evaluation of an intelligent decision support system for nuclear emergencies , 2005, Decis. Support Syst..

[31]  Hubert Klüpfel,et al.  Simulation of the Evacuation of a Football Stadium Using the CA Model PedGo , 2005 .