Characterizing multi-scale self-similar behavior and non-statistical properties of fluctuations in financial time series

We make use of wavelet transform to study the multi-scale, self-similar behavior and deviations thereof, in the stock prices of large companies, belonging to different economic sectors. The stock market returns exhibit multi-fractal characteristics, with some of the companies showing deviations at small and large scales. The fact that, the wavelets belonging to the Daubechies’ (Db) basis enables one to isolate local polynomial trends of different degrees, plays the key role in isolating fluctuations at different scales. One of the primary motivations of this work is to study the emergence of the k−3 behavior [X. Gabaix, P. Gopikrishnan, V. Plerou, H. Stanley, A theory of power law distributions in financial market fluctuations, Nature 423 (2003) 267–270] of the fluctuations starting with high frequency fluctuations. We make use of Db4 and Db6 basis sets to respectively isolate local linear and quadratic trends at different scales in order to study the statistical characteristics of these financial time series. The fluctuations reveal fat tail non-Gaussian behavior, unstable periodic modulations, at finer scales, from which the characteristic k−3 power law behavior emerges at sufficiently large scales. We further identify stable periodic behavior through the continuous Morlet wavelet.

[1]  V. Plerou,et al.  A theory of power-law distributions in financial market fluctuations , 2003, Nature.

[2]  A. Lo,et al.  THE ECONOMETRICS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS , 1996, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

[3]  Prasanta K Panigrahi,et al.  Wavelet analysis and scaling properties of time series. , 2005, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[4]  Thomas Lux,et al.  The stable Paretian hypothesis and the frequency of large returns: an examination of major German stocks , 1996 .

[5]  A. Grossmann,et al.  DECOMPOSITION OF FUNCTIONS INTO WAVELETS OF CONSTANT SHAPE, AND RELATED TRANSFORMS , 1985 .

[6]  V. Plerou,et al.  Universal and Nonuniversal Properties of Cross Correlations in Financial Time Series , 1999, cond-mat/9902283.

[7]  Olivier V. Pictet,et al.  Hill, bootstrap and jackknife estimators for heavy tails , 1998 .

[8]  Wushow Chou,et al.  Real-time computation of empirical autocorrelation, and detection of non-stationary traffic conditions in high-speed networks , 1995, Proceedings of Fourth International Conference on Computer Communications and Networks - IC3N'95.

[9]  H. Stanley,et al.  Detrended cross-correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing two nonstationary time series. , 2007, Physical review letters.

[10]  M. Dacorogna,et al.  Heavy Tails in High-Frequency Financial Data , 1998 .

[11]  D. Sornette Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems , 2017 .

[12]  H Eugene Stanley,et al.  Stock return distributions: tests of scaling and universality from three distinct stock markets. , 2008, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[13]  C. Torrence,et al.  A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis. , 1998 .

[14]  F. James Statistical Methods in Experimental Physics , 1973 .

[15]  C. Sparrow The Fractal Geometry of Nature , 1984 .

[16]  V. Plerou,et al.  Scaling of the distribution of price fluctuations of individual companies. , 1999, Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics.

[17]  Stéphane Mallat,et al.  A Theory for Multiresolution Signal Decomposition: The Wavelet Representation , 1989, IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell..

[18]  J. Bouchaud,et al.  Noise Dressing of Financial Correlation Matrices , 1998, cond-mat/9810255.

[19]  Rosario N. Mantegna,et al.  Book Review: An Introduction to Econophysics, Correlations, and Complexity in Finance, N. Rosario, H. Mantegna, and H. E. Stanley, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000. , 2000 .

[20]  B. Mandelbrot The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices , 1963 .

[21]  Pratap Chandra Biswal,et al.  Wavelet Analysis of the Bombay Stock Exchange Index , 2004 .

[22]  Rosario N. Mantegna,et al.  Stock market dynamics and turbulence: parallel analysis of fluctuation phenomena , 1997 .

[23]  Shlomo Havlin,et al.  Scaling behaviour of heartbeat intervals obtained by wavelet-based time-series analysis , 1996, Nature.

[24]  L. H. Miller Table of Percentage Points of Kolmogorov Statistics , 1956 .

[25]  J. Peinke,et al.  Turbulent cascades in foreign exchange markets , 1996, Nature.

[26]  Prasanta K. Panigrahi,et al.  Multiresolution analysis of fluctuations in non-stationary time series through discrete wavelets , 2006 .

[27]  Spectral fluctuations and 1/f noise in the order-chaos transition regime. , 2005, Physical review letters.

[28]  Prasanta K. Panigrahi,et al.  Variations in Financial Time Series: Modelling Through Wavelets and Genetic Programming , 2007 .

[29]  H. Stanley,et al.  Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series , 2002, physics/0202070.

[30]  Prasanta K. Panigrahi,et al.  Statistical Properties of Fluctuations: A Method to Check Market Behavior , 2009, ArXiv.

[31]  F. Massey The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test for Goodness of Fit , 1951 .

[32]  Rosario N. Mantegna,et al.  Turbulence and financial markets , 1996, Nature.

[33]  A. Grossmann,et al.  Cycle-octave and related transforms in seismic signal analysis , 1984 .

[34]  Jason Wittenberg,et al.  Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results , 2003 .

[35]  J. Morlet Sampling Theory and Wave Propagation , 1983 .

[36]  AN Kolmogorov-Smirnov,et al.  Sulla determinazione empírica di uma legge di distribuzione , 1933 .

[37]  Ivo Grosse,et al.  Time-lag cross-correlations in collective phenomena , 2010 .

[38]  Boris Podobnik,et al.  Quantitative relations between risk, return and firm size , 2009 .

[39]  Prasanta K. Panigrahi,et al.  LETTER TO THE EDITOR: Spectral fluctuation characterization of random matrix ensembles through wavelets , 2006 .

[40]  M. Farge Wavelet Transforms and their Applications to Turbulence , 1992 .

[41]  G. Torrieri,et al.  Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and its use for the identification of fireball fragmentation , 2009, 0902.1607.

[42]  J. Bouchaud,et al.  Theory of financial risks : from statistical physics to risk management , 2000 .

[43]  R. Mantegna,et al.  Scaling behaviour in the dynamics of an economic index , 1995, Nature.

[44]  Anirvan M. Sengupta,et al.  Distributions of singular values for some random matrices. , 1997, Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics.

[45]  H. Stanley,et al.  Multifractal properties of price fluctuations of stocks and commodities , 2003, cond-mat/0308012.

[46]  G. Marsaglia,et al.  Evaluating Kolmogorov's distribution , 2003 .

[47]  V. Plerou,et al.  Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices. , 1999, Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics.

[48]  H. Stanley,et al.  Cross-correlations between volume change and price change , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[49]  P. Manimaran,et al.  Difference in nature of correlation between NASDAQ and BSE indices , 2006 .

[50]  Mark E. J. Newman,et al.  Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data , 2007, SIAM Rev..

[51]  S. Mallat A wavelet tour of signal processing , 1998 .

[52]  Prasanta K. Panigrahi,et al.  Characterizing and modelling cyclic behaviour in non-stationary time series through multi-resolution analysis , 2008 .

[53]  J. Hunter,et al.  Modelling Non-Stationary Economic Time Series: A Multivariate Approach , 2005 .

[54]  I. Daubechies Ten Lectures on Wavelets , 1992 .

[55]  V. Plerou,et al.  Econophysics: financial time series from a statistical physics point of view , 2000 .