RECENT CHANGES IN BART PATRONAGE: SOME FINDINGS ON FARE ELASTICITIES

Some recent trends in the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) weekday patronage and analyses of the most significant causes of these changes are presented in this paper. BART patronage had been increasing steadily from 1981 through mid-1985, reaching a high of 215,000 passengers per day. But patronage growth ceased, then began to decline slowly. After a 32 percent fare increase in January 1986, patronage dropped sharply. Spring 1986 weekday patronage was 10 percent below its level 1 year previously. The fare increase was greater for longer-distance trips; most of the patronage decline took place in the longer trips. Patronage began to grow again more than 18 months after the fare increase, but it still remains 8 percent below the 1985 high. Most of the change can be attributed to the fare increase. Measured fare elasticities were -0.31 overall, -0.37 in the peak, and -0.17 in the off peak. It was also observed that fare elasticities for peak trips to downtown San Francisco were significantly higher for markets that experienced higher percentage fare increases. Other causes of patronage decline were temporary degradation of level of service due to construction work on the system, movement of jobs out of San Francisco, and increased use of casual carpooling for the morning commute to San Francisco. The decrease in gasoline prices did not appear to have a significant effect on patronage.