Testing Information Order Effects in a Long Series of Evidence

Abstract: This research investigates order effects in a long evidence series in a decision-making context. The article provides an application to practicing engineering managers, a detailed explanation of the belief revision model, extensions, competing theories, implications, and experimental findings. The belief revision model was tested in a long series context and found a significant recency effect, contrary to model predictions. The results suggest that the current belief revision model does not account for sequential manipulations, which affect mental effort. We recommend further investigation into the impact of mental effort and discuss the challenges that engineering managers face when trying to build knowledge to make decisions in information intensive environments.

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